Trader consensus in the Terrebonne by-election market heavily favors Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting her consistent lead in recent polls amid Quebec's shifting provincial dynamics favoring Parti Québécois momentum on regional autonomy issues. Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné trails at 36.5%, buoyed by Conservative organizational efforts but hampered by CAQ fatigue following the prior MNA's resignation and broader voter discontent with Legault's government. Minimal support for Maxime Beaudoin, Maria Cantore, Adrienne Charles, and Benjamin Rankin underscores their fringe status. A key recent catalyst: October polling from Léger showing Auguste's double-digit edge widening post-campaign debates, with the vote set for late November potentially swayed by turnout in this bellwether riding.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTerrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
Tatiana Auguste 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 37%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$21,831 Vol.
$21,831 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
37%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
Tatiana Auguste 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 37%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$21,831 Vol.
$21,831 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
37%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the Terrebonne by-election market heavily favors Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting her consistent lead in recent polls amid Quebec's shifting provincial dynamics favoring Parti Québécois momentum on regional autonomy issues. Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné trails at 36.5%, buoyed by Conservative organizational efforts but hampered by CAQ fatigue following the prior MNA's resignation and broader voter discontent with Legault's government. Minimal support for Maxime Beaudoin, Maria Cantore, Adrienne Charles, and Benjamin Rankin underscores their fringe status. A key recent catalyst: October polling from Léger showing Auguste's double-digit edge widening post-campaign debates, with the vote set for late November potentially swayed by turnout in this bellwether riding.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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