**No election is expected by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any dissolution process, confidence crisis, or strategic trigger in the current parliamentary session.** Canada’s next fixed-date federal election under the Canada Elections Act is scheduled for October 15, 2029, following the 2025 contest that returned a Liberal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney. With roughly two weeks remaining before the June 30 cutoff and no ongoing writs or parliamentary deadlock, traders assign near-certainty to the “No” outcome. Recent months have featured routine by-elections, such as the April 13, 2026 contest, rather than any move toward a general election. Opposition parties have not tabled successful non-confidence motions, and the government shows no public inclination to dissolve Parliament for a snap vote amid stable legislative business. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain limited but include an abrupt loss of supply in the House or an unforeseen leadership or coalition development prompting immediate dissolution. Such events would need to unfold and receive vice-regal approval within the narrow window, an outcome unsupported by current procedural timelines or political signals.