Ontario Premier Doug Ford solidified trader confidence in his continued leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party with a January 2026 convention speech, where he pledged to seek a fourth term and rally delegates against external pressures like U.S. tariffs. No leadership review, viable challengers, or official resignation signals have emerged since, despite fringe petitions and criticism over policy decisions such as conservation authorities. With the next provincial election due by mid-2026, Ford's incumbency advantage and party unity—evident in the media-restricted convention attended by nearly 2,000 delegates—underpin the 84% implied probability that he remains PC leader through December 31, absent unforeseen scandals or electoral defeat.