Canada’s federal government has sharply reduced temporary resident targets for 2026 under its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new student and worker arrivals by roughly 40 percent from prior levels while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000. This policy shift, aimed at easing housing and infrastructure pressures, is driving net outflows of non-permanent residents that offset natural increase and permanent inflows, producing official projections of flat population growth for the year. Statistics Canada already recorded the first annual national decline on record for 2025, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer anticipates similar flat results in 2026. Trader odds near even reflect uncertainty over the precise pace of outflows, potential upward revisions from permit extensions or asylum claims, and the limited contribution from births amid low fertility rates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUp
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s federal government has sharply reduced temporary resident targets for 2026 under its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new student and worker arrivals by roughly 40 percent from prior levels while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000. This policy shift, aimed at easing housing and infrastructure pressures, is driving net outflows of non-permanent residents that offset natural increase and permanent inflows, producing official projections of flat population growth for the year. Statistics Canada already recorded the first annual national decline on record for 2025, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer anticipates similar flat results in 2026. Trader odds near even reflect uncertainty over the precise pace of outflows, potential upward revisions from permit extensions or asylum claims, and the limited contribution from births amid low fertility rates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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