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icon for Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

icon for Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Up

53% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Up

53% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s population has declined for two consecutive quarters through early 2026, with Statistics Canada recording a 0.2 percent drop of over 103,000 people between October 2025 and January 2026—the first such annual decline in decades. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat overall growth for the full year as net outflows of non-permanent residents offset gains from permanent immigration. Federal policy under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan has sharply reduced temporary resident targets to 385,000 arrivals while holding permanent resident admissions at 380,000, aiming to bring the temporary share below 5 percent of the total population by late 2027. These measures, introduced to ease housing and infrastructure pressures after earlier rapid growth, form the main driver behind the 61 percent trader-implied probability of a net decrease this year.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,507
Data de Término
30 abr 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s population has declined for two consecutive quarters through early 2026, with Statistics Canada recording a 0.2 percent drop of over 103,000 people between October 2025 and January 2026—the first such annual decline in decades. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat overall growth for the full year as net outflows of non-permanent residents offset gains from permanent immigration. Federal policy under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan has sharply reduced temporary resident targets to 385,000 arrivals while holding permanent resident admissions at 380,000, aiming to bring the temporary share below 5 percent of the total population by late 2027. These measures, introduced to ease housing and infrastructure pressures after earlier rapid growth, form the main driver behind the 61 percent trader-implied probability of a net decrease this year.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,507
Data de Término
30 abr 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 61% for "Down." A price of 61% means the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Canada's population Up or Down this year? price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the daily window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "Canada's population Up or Down this year?," decide whether you believe Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on April 29 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on January 27. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is 61% for "Down," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 61% chance that Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price will finish down over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Canada's population Up or Down this year? price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" market resolves based on a comparison of Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on April 29 versus noon ET on January 27, using Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the April 29 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.