Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.9% for Alberta joining the United States by December 31, 2026, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canadian law requiring a clear provincial referendum majority, federal negotiations akin to Quebec's Clarity Act precedents, and subsequent U.S. congressional approval for statehood—none of which have advanced amid First Nations treaty lawsuits challenging separatist petitions. Recent polls, including a CBC survey days ago, show separatism support flat at around 25-27% with most Albertans opposing independence, far short of thresholds for success. Premier Danielle Smith rejects U.S. statehood, focusing her official October 19 referendum on immigration limits and constitutional tweaks within Canada. While U.S. figures like Treasury Secretary Bessent offered rhetorical support earlier this year, no formal diplomatic actions have materialized. Seismic shifts—a surprise referendum yes vote sparking bilateral agreements—remain highly improbable given timelines and opposition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWill Alberta join the US?
Will Alberta join the US?
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.9% for Alberta joining the United States by December 31, 2026, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canadian law requiring a clear provincial referendum majority, federal negotiations akin to Quebec's Clarity Act precedents, and subsequent U.S. congressional approval for statehood—none of which have advanced amid First Nations treaty lawsuits challenging separatist petitions. Recent polls, including a CBC survey days ago, show separatism support flat at around 25-27% with most Albertans opposing independence, far short of thresholds for success. Premier Danielle Smith rejects U.S. statehood, focusing her official October 19 referendum on immigration limits and constitutional tweaks within Canada. While U.S. figures like Treasury Secretary Bessent offered rhetorical support earlier this year, no formal diplomatic actions have materialized. Seismic shifts—a surprise referendum yes vote sparking bilateral agreements—remain highly improbable given timelines and opposition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$5,125Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.9% for Alberta joining the United States by December 31, 2026, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canadian law requiring a clear provincial referendum majority, federal negotiations akin to Quebec's Clarity Act precedents, and subsequent U.S. congressional approval for statehood—none of which have advanced amid First Nations treaty lawsuits challenging separatist petitions. Recent polls, including a CBC survey days ago, show separatism support flat at around 25-27% with most Albertans opposing independence, far short of thresholds for success. Premier Danielle Smith rejects U.S. statehood, focusing her official October 19 referendum on immigration limits and constitutional tweaks within Canada. While U.S. figures like Treasury Secretary Bessent offered rhetorical support earlier this year, no formal diplomatic actions have materialized. Seismic shifts—a surprise referendum yes vote sparking bilateral agreements—remain highly improbable given timelines and opposition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$5,125Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.9% for Alberta joining the United States by December 31, 2026, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canadian law requiring a clear provincial referendum majority, federal negotiations akin to Quebec's Clarity Act precedents, and subsequent U.S. congressional approval for statehood—none of which have advanced amid First Nations treaty lawsuits challenging separatist petitions. Recent polls, including a CBC survey days ago, show separatism support flat at around 25-27% with most Albertans opposing independence, far short of thresholds for success. Premier Danielle Smith rejects U.S. statehood, focusing her official October 19 referendum on immigration limits and constitutional tweaks within Canada. While U.S. figures like Treasury Secretary Bessent offered rhetorical support earlier this year, no formal diplomatic actions have materialized. Seismic shifts—a surprise referendum yes vote sparking bilateral agreements—remain highly improbable given timelines and opposition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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