Alberta's implied probability of joining the United States stands at just 2.1 percent amid entrenched constitutional, legal, and political barriers within Canada. Separatist petitions have triggered an October 2026 provincial vote on pursuing a binding independence referendum, yet recent Ipsos polling shows support for separation at only 18-19 percent, down from early-2026 levels, with committed backing for U.S. annexation far lower. First Nations legal challenges have stalled petition certification over treaty rights, while federal officials including Prime Minister Mark Carney have reiterated respect for Canadian sovereignty. U.S. engagement has remained limited to routine meetings and informal statements from officials, producing no formal annexation process. Even if independence advanced—an outcome markets view as unlikely—subsequent accession would require complex bilateral negotiations, congressional approval, and broad Albertan consent that current data does not indicate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWill Alberta join the US?
Will Alberta join the US?
$2,189,032 Vol.
$2,189,032 Vol.
31 dez 2026
$2,189,032 Vol.
$2,189,032 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Alberta's implied probability of joining the United States stands at just 2.1 percent amid entrenched constitutional, legal, and political barriers within Canada. Separatist petitions have triggered an October 2026 provincial vote on pursuing a binding independence referendum, yet recent Ipsos polling shows support for separation at only 18-19 percent, down from early-2026 levels, with committed backing for U.S. annexation far lower. First Nations legal challenges have stalled petition certification over treaty rights, while federal officials including Prime Minister Mark Carney have reiterated respect for Canadian sovereignty. U.S. engagement has remained limited to routine meetings and informal statements from officials, producing no formal annexation process. Even if independence advanced—an outcome markets view as unlikely—subsequent accession would require complex bilateral negotiations, congressional approval, and broad Albertan consent that current data does not indicate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,189,032Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Alberta's implied probability of joining the United States stands at just 2.1 percent amid entrenched constitutional, legal, and political barriers within Canada. Separatist petitions have triggered an October 2026 provincial vote on pursuing a binding independence referendum, yet recent Ipsos polling shows support for separation at only 18-19 percent, down from early-2026 levels, with committed backing for U.S. annexation far lower. First Nations legal challenges have stalled petition certification over treaty rights, while federal officials including Prime Minister Mark Carney have reiterated respect for Canadian sovereignty. U.S. engagement has remained limited to routine meetings and informal statements from officials, producing no formal annexation process. Even if independence advanced—an outcome markets view as unlikely—subsequent accession would require complex bilateral negotiations, congressional approval, and broad Albertan consent that current data does not indicate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$2,189,032Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alberta's implied probability of joining the United States stands at just 2.1 percent amid entrenched constitutional, legal, and political barriers within Canada. Separatist petitions have triggered an October 2026 provincial vote on pursuing a binding independence referendum, yet recent Ipsos polling shows support for separation at only 18-19 percent, down from early-2026 levels, with committed backing for U.S. annexation far lower. First Nations legal challenges have stalled petition certification over treaty rights, while federal officials including Prime Minister Mark Carney have reiterated respect for Canadian sovereignty. U.S. engagement has remained limited to routine meetings and informal statements from officials, producing no formal annexation process. Even if independence advanced—an outcome markets view as unlikely—subsequent accession would require complex bilateral negotiations, congressional approval, and broad Albertan consent that current data does not indicate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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