**Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintain a consistent national polling lead of roughly 6–11 points over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives through mid-to-late August 2026, with vote shares typically in the 42–46% range for the Liberals versus 30–36% for the Conservatives.** Aggregators such as 338Canada project the Liberals holding a substantial seat advantage (around 219 seats) compared with roughly 84 for the Conservatives, well short of any crossover. This positioning stems from stable Liberal support in key regions including Ontario and Atlantic Canada, combined with Carney’s sustained personal approval ratings above 50% in recent surveys. Recent polling from firms including Nanos, Abacus Data, and Liaison Strategies shows minimal movement favoring the Conservatives, with their support at times dipping below 33%. The next scheduled federal election is not until 2029, and no major catalysts—such as shifts in trade negotiations, provincial developments, or leadership changes—have altered the trajectory enough to produce a Conservative lead in seat projections. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the absence of conditions that would allow Conservatives to overtake Liberals in 338Canada’s published seat model before year-end.