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Política·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da Galway-West By-Election?

Market icon
Política·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da Galway-West By-Election?

Noel Thomas 50%

Seán Kyne 27%

Mark Lohan 11%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.0%

Polymarket

$20,070 Vol.

Noel Thomas 50%

Seán Kyne 27%

Mark Lohan 11%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.0%

Polymarket

$20,070 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$18,469 Vol.

3%

Seán Kyne

$124 Vol.

26%

Niall Murphy

$102 Vol.

26%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$97 Vol.

23%

Orla Nugent

$103 Vol.

20%

Helen Ogbu

$388 Vol.

15%

Denman Rooke

$58 Vol.

6%

Noel Thomas

$402 Vol.

38%

Thomas Welby

$87 Vol.

8%

Mike Cubbard

$106 Vol.

34%

Mark Lohan

$134 Vol.

17%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).In the Galway West Dáil by-election set for late May, trader consensus slightly favors Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas at 38% implied probability over progressive independent Mike Cubbard at 33.5%, with Green Party's Niall Murphy, Fine Gael's Seán Kyne, and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich clustered around 25-26% amid a crowded 12-candidate field. This tightness stems from vote fragmentation under single transferable vote rules, where first preferences are uncertain absent credible polls—the Electoral Commission recently debunked a dubious online survey claiming a clear leader. Fianna Fáil's March 29 selection of young councillor Cillian Keane finalized major party entries, while a March 26 "vote left, transfer left" pact among six left candidates (Sinn Féin, Labour, Greens, Social Democrats, PBP-Solidarity, and one independent) aims to consolidate transfers, potentially elevating lower-polling runners like Mark Lohan. Intensified canvassing on local issues such as housing and Gaeltacht concerns could boost frontrunners or spark shifts before polling day.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$20,070
Data de Término
31 mar 2027
Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).In the Galway West Dáil by-election set for late May, trader consensus slightly favors Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas at 38% implied probability over progressive independent Mike Cubbard at 33.5%, with Green Party's Niall Murphy, Fine Gael's Seán Kyne, and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich clustered around 25-26% amid a crowded 12-candidate field. This tightness stems from vote fragmentation under single transferable vote rules, where first preferences are uncertain absent credible polls—the Electoral Commission recently debunked a dubious online survey claiming a clear leader. Fianna Fáil's March 29 selection of young councillor Cillian Keane finalized major party entries, while a March 26 "vote left, transfer left" pact among six left candidates (Sinn Féin, Labour, Greens, Social Democrats, PBP-Solidarity, and one independent) aims to consolidate transfers, potentially elevating lower-polling runners like Mark Lohan. Intensified canvassing on local issues such as housing and Gaeltacht concerns could boost frontrunners or spark shifts before polling day.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$20,070
Data de Término
31 mar 2027
Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da Galway-West By-Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Noel Thomas" at 38%, followed by "Mike Cubbard" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da Galway-West By-Election?" has generated $20.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da Galway-West By-Election?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da Galway-West By-Election?" is "Noel Thomas" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mike Cubbard" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da Galway-West By-Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.