Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Beijing high of 28°C at 31.5% implied probability for April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts via the World Meteorological Centre Beijing projecting sunny skies, light southerly breezes, and a peak near 26°C following April 16's rainy cooldown (13-17°C highs). This aligns with a spring warming trend above the mid-April historical average of 20-22°C, amplified by urban heat island effects in the capital. High uncertainty across 25-29°C outcomes reflects short-range weather model divergences on boundary layer stability and afternoon cloud potential—clear skies maximize insolation for 28-29°C, while haze or northerlies could limit to 25-26°C, and rare heat bursts push 30°C+. Overnight CMA updates and early observations will sharpen resolution based on official Beijing Observatory measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on April 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 18?
28°C 32%
27°C 17%
26°C 16%
29°C 14%
$28,643 Vol.
$28,643 Vol.
25°C or below
11%
26°C
16%
27°C
17%
28°C
32%
29°C
14%
30°C
3%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
28°C 32%
27°C 17%
26°C 16%
29°C 14%
$28,643 Vol.
$28,643 Vol.
25°C or below
11%
26°C
16%
27°C
17%
28°C
32%
29°C
14%
30°C
3%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 1:08 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Beijing high of 28°C at 31.5% implied probability for April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts via the World Meteorological Centre Beijing projecting sunny skies, light southerly breezes, and a peak near 26°C following April 16's rainy cooldown (13-17°C highs). This aligns with a spring warming trend above the mid-April historical average of 20-22°C, amplified by urban heat island effects in the capital. High uncertainty across 25-29°C outcomes reflects short-range weather model divergences on boundary layer stability and afternoon cloud potential—clear skies maximize insolation for 28-29°C, while haze or northerlies could limit to 25-26°C, and rare heat bursts push 30°C+. Overnight CMA updates and early observations will sharpen resolution based on official Beijing Observatory measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions