Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models points to daytime maxima of 36–38°C in Chengdu on July 15 amid the Sichuan Basin’s subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (70–80%) and afternoon convective clouds often cap extreme heating. Trader probabilities peak at 38°C (27.5%) with notable weight on 37–39°C outcomes, reflecting model disagreement on cloud cover, scattered showers, and steering patterns that could suppress or allow brief peaks near 40°C. Historical July climatology shows frequent 35–38°C readings tempered by monsoon moisture, while any shift toward clearer skies or reduced precipitation would favor higher bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chengdu em 15 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Chengdu em 15 de julho?
38°C 100.0%
31°C ou menos <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$98,846 Vol.
$98,846 Vol.
15 jul 2026
31°C ou menos
Não
32°C
Não
33°C
Não
34°C
Não
35°C
Não
36°C
Não
37°C
Não
38°C
Sim
39°C
Não
40°C
Não
41°C ou mais
Não
38°C 100.0%
31°C ou menos <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$98,846 Vol.
$98,846 Vol.
15 jul 2026
31°C ou menos
$806 Vol.
Não
32°C
$4,295 Vol.
Não
33°C
$7,253 Vol.
Não
34°C
$8,335 Vol.
Não
35°C
$10,488 Vol.
Não
36°C
$8,404 Vol.
Não
37°C
$21,830 Vol.
Não
38°C
$10,622 Vol.
Sim
39°C
$11,427 Vol.
Não
40°C
$6,149 Vol.
Não
41°C ou mais
$9,237 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models points to daytime maxima of 36–38°C in Chengdu on July 15 amid the Sichuan Basin’s subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (70–80%) and afternoon convective clouds often cap extreme heating. Trader probabilities peak at 38°C (27.5%) with notable weight on 37–39°C outcomes, reflecting model disagreement on cloud cover, scattered showers, and steering patterns that could suppress or allow brief peaks near 40°C. Historical July climatology shows frequent 35–38°C readings tempered by monsoon moisture, while any shift toward clearer skies or reduced precipitation would favor higher bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$98,846Data de Término
15 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models points to daytime maxima of 36–38°C in Chengdu on July 15 amid the Sichuan Basin’s subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (70–80%) and afternoon convective clouds often cap extreme heating. Trader probabilities peak at 38°C (27.5%) with notable weight on 37–39°C outcomes, reflecting model disagreement on cloud cover, scattered showers, and steering patterns that could suppress or allow brief peaks near 40°C. Historical July climatology shows frequent 35–38°C readings tempered by monsoon moisture, while any shift toward clearer skies or reduced precipitation would favor higher bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$98,846Data de Término
15 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models points to daytime maxima of 36–38°C in Chengdu on July 15 amid the Sichuan Basin’s subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (70–80%) and afternoon convective clouds often cap extreme heating. Trader probabilities peak at 38°C (27.5%) with notable weight on 37–39°C outcomes, reflecting model disagreement on cloud cover, scattered showers, and steering patterns that could suppress or allow brief peaks near 40°C. Historical July climatology shows frequent 35–38°C readings tempered by monsoon moisture, while any shift toward clearer skies or reduced precipitation would favor higher bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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