Persistent high-pressure ridging and a mid-August European heat dome are sustaining above-normal temperatures across southern Germany, with warm advection from the south supporting daily maxima near 31–32 °C in Munich on August 16. Ensemble guidance from global models shows close clustering around these values, with minor spread arising from the timing and intensity of any late-day convection or boundary-layer mixing that could cap or briefly exceed the peak. Historical August climatology for Munich centers near 23–25 °C, so the current setup reflects a pronounced positive anomaly. Updated high-resolution runs from the German Weather Service and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will refine whether modest cloud cover or drier downslope flow shifts the most probable outcome between the tightly matched 31 °C and 32 °C contracts.