Recent model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF points to overnight minima in London settling near 16–18 °C on August 16 amid a transition to fresher Atlantic air following the prolonged 2026 heatwave. Clear or partly cloudy skies expected under high pressure will allow moderate radiative cooling, while the urban heat-island effect and residual warmth from daytime highs near 25 °C keep temperatures from dropping much below the seasonal average low of 14–15 °C. Short-range guidance shows little risk of stronger northerly flow or widespread cloud that could push minima lower, supporting the market’s tight clustering around 17 °C. Updated forecast runs through the weekend will refine these probabilities as frontal timing becomes clearer.