Recent model consensus from Météo-France and European forecasting centers indicates a gradual easing of the ongoing warm spell over Paris, with nighttime minimums for August 16 most likely settling between 18–20 °C. Persistent southerly flow and limited cloud cover have kept recent overnight readings elevated near 22 °C, yet an incoming Atlantic trough is expected to introduce slightly cooler, drier air by the weekend, lowering the floor by 2–4 °C. Historical August climatology places typical lows at 14–16 °C, so current guidance remains above average. Traders appear to weigh the balance between this modest cooling signal and lingering model spread on exact timing of the trough passage, concentrating implied probability on the 18 °C or below and 19–20 °C buckets ahead of updated runs on the 15th.