Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance projecting mid-to-upper 80s highs for New York City on April 16 under a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and ample sunshine, with light southerly winds aiding warm air advection. The close contest among 82-83°F (28.5% implied probability), 84-85°F (23.5%), and 86-87°F (23.0%) stems from slight ensemble spread in GFS and ECMWF models—GFS trending marginally warmer via deeper boundary layer mixing, while ECMWF shows minor afternoon cloudiness potential cooling peaks by 2-3°F. Yesterday's forecast updates trended warmer after early-week cooler biases, but sea breeze timing and urban heat island effects at Central Park (market resolution site) add uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs tonight for shifts ahead of Thursday's peak heating around 2-4 PM EDT.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on April 16?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 16?
82-83°F 27%
84-85°F 23%
30-30,5°C 19%
80-81°F 16%
77°F ou menos
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
23%
84-85°F
23%
30-30,5°C
19%
88-89°F
8%
90-91°F
8%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F ou mais
<1%
82-83°F 27%
84-85°F 23%
30-30,5°C 19%
80-81°F 16%
77°F ou menos
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
23%
84-85°F
23%
30-30,5°C
19%
88-89°F
8%
90-91°F
8%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance projecting mid-to-upper 80s highs for New York City on April 16 under a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and ample sunshine, with light southerly winds aiding warm air advection. The close contest among 82-83°F (28.5% implied probability), 84-85°F (23.5%), and 86-87°F (23.0%) stems from slight ensemble spread in GFS and ECMWF models—GFS trending marginally warmer via deeper boundary layer mixing, while ECMWF shows minor afternoon cloudiness potential cooling peaks by 2-3°F. Yesterday's forecast updates trended warmer after early-week cooler biases, but sea breeze timing and urban heat island effects at Central Park (market resolution site) add uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs tonight for shifts ahead of Thursday's peak heating around 2-4 PM EDT.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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