Trader consensus for San Francisco’s highest temperature today clusters around the mid-70s, with the 76-77°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 32.5 percent amid broad uncertainty across neighboring ranges. This positioning reflects National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance showing a marine layer that is neither unusually deep nor fully eroded, producing variable afternoon clearing and modest warming under weak high pressure. Key variables include the timing and extent of fog burn-off, onshore wind strength, and any subtle shifts in 850 hPa temperatures that could push readings a degree or two higher or lower. Ensemble spreads remain wide enough that traders assign meaningful odds to both 74-75°F and 78-79°F outcomes, consistent with typical late-August climatology where daily highs near the coast often fluctuate within a narrow band.