Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 22–24 seats, well below its 32 seats from 2022, driving the strong trader consensus on seat losses. Factors include voter fatigue with the long-serving Netanyahu-led government, fallout from the October 7 attacks and subsequent conflict, and dissatisfaction with judicial reform efforts. Opposition parties such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s grouping have gained in surveys, often tying or surpassing Likud as the largest single party while the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc remains short of a 61-seat majority. These trends reflect shifting voter preferences ahead of the vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado86% chance
$10,651 Vol.
$10,651 Vol.
27 out 2026
86% chance
$10,651 Vol.
$10,651 Vol.
27 out 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 22–24 seats, well below its 32 seats from 2022, driving the strong trader consensus on seat losses. Factors include voter fatigue with the long-serving Netanyahu-led government, fallout from the October 7 attacks and subsequent conflict, and dissatisfaction with judicial reform efforts. Opposition parties such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s grouping have gained in surveys, often tying or surpassing Likud as the largest single party while the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc remains short of a 61-seat majority. These trends reflect shifting voter preferences ahead of the vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$10,651Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 22–24 seats, well below its 32 seats from 2022, driving the strong trader consensus on seat losses. Factors include voter fatigue with the long-serving Netanyahu-led government, fallout from the October 7 attacks and subsequent conflict, and dissatisfaction with judicial reform efforts. Opposition parties such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s grouping have gained in surveys, often tying or surpassing Likud as the largest single party while the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc remains short of a 61-seat majority. These trends reflect shifting voter preferences ahead of the vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$10,651Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 22–24 seats, well below its 32 seats from 2022, driving the strong trader consensus on seat losses. Factors include voter fatigue with the long-serving Netanyahu-led government, fallout from the October 7 attacks and subsequent conflict, and dissatisfaction with judicial reform efforts. Opposition parties such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s grouping have gained in surveys, often tying or surpassing Likud as the largest single party while the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc remains short of a 61-seat majority. These trends reflect shifting voter preferences ahead of the vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions