Recent forecast models for Shenzhen indicate a most likely minimum temperature near 25–26°C on September 23, driven by typical late-summer subtropical conditions with scattered showers and light easterly flow that limit overnight radiative cooling. The near-even market split between 22°C or below and 32°C or higher reflects lingering uncertainty in mesoscale features such as localized heavy rain bands or shifts in the subtropical ridge, which can alter boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds enough to change the overnight low by several degrees. Historical September lows average 24–26°C, so both tails require either enhanced cooling from persistent cloud cover and precipitation or an atypical warm-air advection event. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.