Official Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models project overnight lows of 24–27°C in Taipei for August 28 amid typical late-summer southwest flow, high humidity, and basin topography that limits radiative cooling. Afternoon and evening convection, with 25–65% rain probabilities across runs, could enhance cooling through evaporative effects and cloud cover, while lighter winds reduce mixing. Historical climatology shows average August 28 lows near 26°C, with urban heat-island effects often elevating minima. Slight model spread on precipitation timing and intensity keeps 25–29°C outcomes tightly clustered near 45–47% implied probability, reflecting trader assessment of these near-term variables. Updated model runs and CWA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the range.