**Persistent southwesterly monsoon flow and scattered rainfall through August 25 have kept overnight temperatures in Taipei anchored near 24–26°C, with Central Weather Administration (CWA) guidance and ensemble models showing limited radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and high humidity (dew points near 24–25°C).** This setup favors a minimum around 25–26°C on the 26th as conditions trend drier and partly cloudy, allowing slightly more overnight cooling than the rainier prior nights but still above typical clear-sky radiative losses. Recent heavy rain episodes and an approaching tropical system (Saudel) have sustained elevated moisture, suppressing larger temperature drops while steering patterns keep the island under warm, unstable air. Model consensus places the 26th low in the mid-20s°C range, consistent with late-August climatology (historical averages near 25°C), which explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around 24–26°C. Minor forecast shifts in cloud cover or timing of any residual showers could nudge the exact minimum between these thresholds.