Wesley Bell's decisive Democratic primary victory over Cori Bush on August 4 has locked in the incumbent as the nominee in Missouri's 1st Congressional District, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its Solid D rating and Bell's 75.9% win in 2024. Traders price multiple Democrat margin bands near 37% because the district's urban St. Louis base and historical turnout patterns support comfortable victories, yet exact margins remain sensitive to general election turnout, Republican nominee Paul Berry's campaign resources, and any late-cycle national headwinds. The low 15.5% on Republican wins underscores structural barriers, while clustered pricing around 50-70% Democrat margins captures uncertainty over whether Bell's pragmatist profile will expand or hold the party's edge in November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDemocrat 65-70% 37%
Democrat 60-65% 37%
Democrat 45-50% 37%
Democrat 70-75% 36%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 75%+
15%
Democrat 70-75%
36%
Democrat 65-70%
37%
Democrat 60-65%
37%
Democrat 55-60%
36%
Democrat 50-55%
36%
Democrat 45-50%
37%
Democrat 35-45%
36%
Democrat 0-35%
36%
Republican Wins
15%
Democrat 65-70% 37%
Democrat 60-65% 37%
Democrat 45-50% 37%
Democrat 70-75% 36%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 75%+
$0 Vol.
15%
Democrat 70-75%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 65-70%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 60-65%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 35-45%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 0-35%
$0 Vol.
36%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
15%
The 2026 MO-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wesley Bell's decisive Democratic primary victory over Cori Bush on August 4 has locked in the incumbent as the nominee in Missouri's 1st Congressional District, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its Solid D rating and Bell's 75.9% win in 2024. Traders price multiple Democrat margin bands near 37% because the district's urban St. Louis base and historical turnout patterns support comfortable victories, yet exact margins remain sensitive to general election turnout, Republican nominee Paul Berry's campaign resources, and any late-cycle national headwinds. The low 15.5% on Republican wins underscores structural barriers, while clustered pricing around 50-70% Democrat margins captures uncertainty over whether Bell's pragmatist profile will expand or hold the party's edge in November.
The 2026 MO-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MO-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wesley Bell's decisive Democratic primary victory over Cori Bush on August 4 has locked in the incumbent as the nominee in Missouri's 1st Congressional District, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its Solid D rating and Bell's 75.9% win in 2024. Traders price multiple Democrat margin bands near 37% because the district's urban St. Louis base and historical turnout patterns support comfortable victories, yet exact margins remain sensitive to general election turnout, Republican nominee Paul Berry's campaign resources, and any late-cycle national headwinds. The low 15.5% on Republican wins underscores structural barriers, while clustered pricing around 50-70% Democrat margins captures uncertainty over whether Bell's pragmatist profile will expand or hold the party's edge in November.
The 2026 MO-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wesley Bell's decisive Democratic primary victory over Cori Bush on August 4 has locked in the incumbent as the nominee in Missouri's 1st Congressional District, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its Solid D rating and Bell's 75.9% win in 2024. Traders price multiple Democrat margin bands near 37% because the district's urban St. Louis base and historical turnout patterns support comfortable victories, yet exact margins remain sensitive to general election turnout, Republican nominee Paul Berry's campaign resources, and any late-cycle national headwinds. The low 15.5% on Republican wins underscores structural barriers, while clustered pricing around 50-70% Democrat margins captures uncertainty over whether Bell's pragmatist profile will expand or hold the party's edge in November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
O candidato do Partido Republicano vencerá a eleição para a Câmara de MO-02 em 2026 por uma margem de 6%-9%?
37%
Sim
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-06 House election by 35% or more?
43%
O candidato do Partido Republicano vencerá a eleição para a Câmara de MO-07 em 2026 com 50% ou mais?
37%
Sim
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions