Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores have remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since their January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. They face narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered and a June 2027 trial date set after the July 2026 status hearing. Defense counsel plans pretrial motions in September 2026 challenging the indictment on head-of-state immunity and capture legality grounds, followed by oral arguments in November. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for release by late 2026 aligns with the extended federal pretrial timeline, absence of bail requests, and lack of confirmed diplomatic or plea developments that would alter custody status ahead of resolution on the charged offenses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,687,895 Vol.
30 jan 2026
31 de dezembro
7%
$2,687,895 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$292,446 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores have remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since their January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. They face narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered and a June 2027 trial date set after the July 2026 status hearing. Defense counsel plans pretrial motions in September 2026 challenging the indictment on head-of-state immunity and capture legality grounds, followed by oral arguments in November. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for release by late 2026 aligns with the extended federal pretrial timeline, absence of bail requests, and lack of confirmed diplomatic or plea developments that would alter custody status ahead of resolution on the charged offenses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,687,895Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores have remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since their January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. They face narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered and a June 2027 trial date set after the July 2026 status hearing. Defense counsel plans pretrial motions in September 2026 challenging the indictment on head-of-state immunity and capture legality grounds, followed by oral arguments in November. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for release by late 2026 aligns with the extended federal pretrial timeline, absence of bail requests, and lack of confirmed diplomatic or plea developments that would alter custody status ahead of resolution on the charged offenses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,687,895Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores have remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since their January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. They face narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered and a June 2027 trial date set after the July 2026 status hearing. Defense counsel plans pretrial motions in September 2026 challenging the indictment on head-of-state immunity and capture legality grounds, followed by oral arguments in November. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for release by late 2026 aligns with the extended federal pretrial timeline, absence of bail requests, and lack of confirmed diplomatic or plea developments that would alter custody status ahead of resolution on the charged offenses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions