Early returns from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District show Democrat Analilia Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 65%-35% (+30 points) with 71% of votes reporting, driven by strong performance in heavily Democratic Essex County, but traders expect the margin to narrow to 20-30 points as remaining ballots from Republican-leaning Morris and Passaic counties are counted. A March GBAO poll implied a +17 Mejia edge in this D+8 presidential district, where low special election turnout typically favors Republicans and Mejia's progressive profile—highlighted in the April 1 debate—may limit broader appeal compared to predecessor Mikie Sherrill's +15 in 2024. GOP motivation to preserve their razor-thin House majority keeps the race competitive; late mail-in or provisional ballots could widen or compress the final margin.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMejia 35-40% 24%
Mejia 25-30% 23%
Mejia <20% 8%
Mejia 40%+ 6%
$1,881 Vol.
$1,881 Vol.
16 abr 2026
Mejia 40%+
8%
Mejia 35-40%
20%
Mejia 30-35%
42%
Mejia 25-30%
44%
Mejia 20-25%
47%
Mejia <20%
8%
Other
<1%
Mejia 35-40% 24%
Mejia 25-30% 23%
Mejia <20% 8%
Mejia 40%+ 6%
$1,881 Vol.
$1,881 Vol.
16 abr 2026
Mejia 40%+
$140 Vol.
8%
Mejia 35-40%
$319 Vol.
20%
Mejia 30-35%
$428 Vol.
42%
Mejia 25-30%
$239 Vol.
44%
Mejia 20-25%
$199 Vol.
47%
Mejia <20%
$222 Vol.
8%
Other
$335 Vol.
<1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Early returns from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District show Democrat Analilia Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 65%-35% (+30 points) with 71% of votes reporting, driven by strong performance in heavily Democratic Essex County, but traders expect the margin to narrow to 20-30 points as remaining ballots from Republican-leaning Morris and Passaic counties are counted. A March GBAO poll implied a +17 Mejia edge in this D+8 presidential district, where low special election turnout typically favors Republicans and Mejia's progressive profile—highlighted in the April 1 debate—may limit broader appeal compared to predecessor Mikie Sherrill's +15 in 2024. GOP motivation to preserve their razor-thin House majority keeps the race competitive; late mail-in or provisional ballots could widen or compress the final margin.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,881Data de Término
16 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Early returns from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District show Democrat Analilia Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 65%-35% (+30 points) with 71% of votes reporting, driven by strong performance in heavily Democratic Essex County, but traders expect the margin to narrow to 20-30 points as remaining ballots from Republican-leaning Morris and Passaic counties are counted. A March GBAO poll implied a +17 Mejia edge in this D+8 presidential district, where low special election turnout typically favors Republicans and Mejia's progressive profile—highlighted in the April 1 debate—may limit broader appeal compared to predecessor Mikie Sherrill's +15 in 2024. GOP motivation to preserve their razor-thin House majority keeps the race competitive; late mail-in or provisional ballots could widen or compress the final margin.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$1,881Data de Término
16 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early returns from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District show Democrat Analilia Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 65%-35% (+30 points) with 71% of votes reporting, driven by strong performance in heavily Democratic Essex County, but traders expect the margin to narrow to 20-30 points as remaining ballots from Republican-leaning Morris and Passaic counties are counted. A March GBAO poll implied a +17 Mejia edge in this D+8 presidential district, where low special election turnout typically favors Republicans and Mejia's progressive profile—highlighted in the April 1 debate—may limit broader appeal compared to predecessor Mikie Sherrill's +15 in 2024. GOP motivation to preserve their razor-thin House majority keeps the race competitive; late mail-in or provisional ballots could widen or compress the final margin.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions