Russian legislative elections are set for September 2026, with the 5% national vote threshold required for proportional representation seats in the State Duma. Recent opinion polls place Yabloko at roughly 2–3%, consistent with its 1.34% result in 2021. The party secured Central Election Commission registration of its federal list and single-mandate candidates in July 2026, yet dozens of its candidates have been disqualified through court rulings on “extremist symbols,” foreign-agent designations, and related administrative barriers. Its explicit anti-war platform continues to operate within a restrictive legal environment that limits opposition outreach and media access. These factors have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% probability assigned to “No.”