Christian Menefee holds a commanding trader consensus at 87% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his incumbency after a January special election victory replacing the late Rep. Sylvester Turner, and a narrow edge in the March 3 primary (46% to Al Green's 44%). Recent Q1 FEC filings reveal Menefee outraising Green more than 2-to-1 ($1 million versus under $500,000), fueling ad advantages in the safely Democratic Houston district reshaped by 2025 redistricting that displaced Green from TX-09. Green's long tenure faces age-related scrutiny at 79, while pre-runoff polls like February's UH Hobby survey (Menefee 52%, Green 28%) underscore Menefee's momentum among key voting blocs. Minor candidates Edwards and Brown trail after failing to advance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoChristian Menefee 88.5%
Al Green 11.2%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$25,530 Vol.
$25,530 Vol.
Christian Menefee
89%
Al Green
11%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Christian Menefee 88.5%
Al Green 11.2%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$25,530 Vol.
$25,530 Vol.
Christian Menefee
89%
Al Green
11%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Christian Menefee holds a commanding trader consensus at 87% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his incumbency after a January special election victory replacing the late Rep. Sylvester Turner, and a narrow edge in the March 3 primary (46% to Al Green's 44%). Recent Q1 FEC filings reveal Menefee outraising Green more than 2-to-1 ($1 million versus under $500,000), fueling ad advantages in the safely Democratic Houston district reshaped by 2025 redistricting that displaced Green from TX-09. Green's long tenure faces age-related scrutiny at 79, while pre-runoff polls like February's UH Hobby survey (Menefee 52%, Green 28%) underscore Menefee's momentum among key voting blocs. Minor candidates Edwards and Brown trail after failing to advance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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