Recent U.S. indictments and $10 million rewards targeting Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar have sustained trader focus on Sinaloa Cartel Chapitos faction members, while April 2026 Mexican forces captured CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias El Jardinero, following the February killing of leader El Mencho. Ongoing bilateral enforcement actions against remaining Sinaloa figures, combined with federal charges against Mexican officials accused of cartel ties, continue to shape implied probabilities for 2026 arrests. Resolution hinges on confirmed detentions by law enforcement before year-end, with scheduled operations and reward-driven tips representing key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais líderes de cartel serão presos em 2026?
Quais líderes de cartel serão presos em 2026?
$143,082 Vol.
28 fev 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
62%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
25%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
50%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
45%
$143,082 Vol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,906 Vol.
62%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,848 Vol.
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$60,997 Vol.
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,874 Vol.
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
$58,651 Vol.
25%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$200 Vol.
50%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. indictments and $10 million rewards targeting Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar have sustained trader focus on Sinaloa Cartel Chapitos faction members, while April 2026 Mexican forces captured CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias El Jardinero, following the February killing of leader El Mencho. Ongoing bilateral enforcement actions against remaining Sinaloa figures, combined with federal charges against Mexican officials accused of cartel ties, continue to shape implied probabilities for 2026 arrests. Resolution hinges on confirmed detentions by law enforcement before year-end, with scheduled operations and reward-driven tips representing key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Volume
$143,082Data de Término
28 fev 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. indictments and $10 million rewards targeting Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar have sustained trader focus on Sinaloa Cartel Chapitos faction members, while April 2026 Mexican forces captured CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias El Jardinero, following the February killing of leader El Mencho. Ongoing bilateral enforcement actions against remaining Sinaloa figures, combined with federal charges against Mexican officials accused of cartel ties, continue to shape implied probabilities for 2026 arrests. Resolution hinges on confirmed detentions by law enforcement before year-end, with scheduled operations and reward-driven tips representing key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$143,082Data de Término
28 fev 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. indictments and $10 million rewards targeting Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar have sustained trader focus on Sinaloa Cartel Chapitos faction members, while April 2026 Mexican forces captured CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias El Jardinero, following the February killing of leader El Mencho. Ongoing bilateral enforcement actions against remaining Sinaloa figures, combined with federal charges against Mexican officials accused of cartel ties, continue to shape implied probabilities for 2026 arrests. Resolution hinges on confirmed detentions by law enforcement before year-end, with scheduled operations and reward-driven tips representing key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions