Mexican authorities and U.S. agencies have intensified operations against major drug trafficking organizations in 2026, with high-profile arrests and leadership disruptions shaping expectations for further captures. In April, Mexican forces detained Audias Flores Silva, alias “El Jardinero,” a senior CJNG regional commander viewed as a potential successor to Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”), who was killed in a February security operation. Sinaloa Cartel infighting between Chapitos and Mayiza factions has produced multiple mid-level detentions, while U.S. indictments target remaining Chapitos figures with multimillion-dollar rewards. Ongoing bilateral pressure, including new charges against CJNG associates and rewards programs, continues to influence prospects for additional high-value arrests before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais líderes de cartel serão presos em 2026?
Quais líderes de cartel serão presos em 2026?
$176,408 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
59%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
43%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
42%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
36%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
28%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
61%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
48%
$176,408 Vol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,972 Vol.
59%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,988 Vol.
43%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$60,997 Vol.
42%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,874 Vol.
36%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
$58,662 Vol.
28%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$33,310 Vol.
61%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican authorities and U.S. agencies have intensified operations against major drug trafficking organizations in 2026, with high-profile arrests and leadership disruptions shaping expectations for further captures. In April, Mexican forces detained Audias Flores Silva, alias “El Jardinero,” a senior CJNG regional commander viewed as a potential successor to Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”), who was killed in a February security operation. Sinaloa Cartel infighting between Chapitos and Mayiza factions has produced multiple mid-level detentions, while U.S. indictments target remaining Chapitos figures with multimillion-dollar rewards. Ongoing bilateral pressure, including new charges against CJNG associates and rewards programs, continues to influence prospects for additional high-value arrests before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Volume
$176,408Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican authorities and U.S. agencies have intensified operations against major drug trafficking organizations in 2026, with high-profile arrests and leadership disruptions shaping expectations for further captures. In April, Mexican forces detained Audias Flores Silva, alias “El Jardinero,” a senior CJNG regional commander viewed as a potential successor to Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”), who was killed in a February security operation. Sinaloa Cartel infighting between Chapitos and Mayiza factions has produced multiple mid-level detentions, while U.S. indictments target remaining Chapitos figures with multimillion-dollar rewards. Ongoing bilateral pressure, including new charges against CJNG associates and rewards programs, continues to influence prospects for additional high-value arrests before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$176,408Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mexican authorities and U.S. agencies have intensified operations against major drug trafficking organizations in 2026, with high-profile arrests and leadership disruptions shaping expectations for further captures. In April, Mexican forces detained Audias Flores Silva, alias “El Jardinero,” a senior CJNG regional commander viewed as a potential successor to Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”), who was killed in a February security operation. Sinaloa Cartel infighting between Chapitos and Mayiza factions has produced multiple mid-level detentions, while U.S. indictments target remaining Chapitos figures with multimillion-dollar rewards. Ongoing bilateral pressure, including new charges against CJNG associates and rewards programs, continues to influence prospects for additional high-value arrests before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions