Enhanced US-Mexico intelligence sharing and joint enforcement actions have accelerated targeting of major cartel figures, including the February 2026 operation that killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) and multiple 2025 extraditions of high-ranking members to face US charges. Ongoing bilateral pressure, including DEA indictments and Mexican National Guard operations, supports trader focus on remaining Sinaloa and CJNG leadership amid post-arrest factional shifts. Key variables include additional extradition requests, potential leadership succession conflicts, and scheduled US prosecutions that could trigger further transfers before year-end. Market pricing reflects these enforcement trends alongside structural barriers such as territorial control and internal cartel resilience.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais líderes de cartel serão presos em 2026?
Quais líderes de cartel serão presos em 2026?
$143,093 Vol.
28 fev 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
60%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
50%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
49%
$143,093 Vol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,906 Vol.
60%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,848 Vol.
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$60,997 Vol.
50%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,874 Vol.
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
$58,662 Vol.
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$200 Vol.
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Enhanced US-Mexico intelligence sharing and joint enforcement actions have accelerated targeting of major cartel figures, including the February 2026 operation that killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) and multiple 2025 extraditions of high-ranking members to face US charges. Ongoing bilateral pressure, including DEA indictments and Mexican National Guard operations, supports trader focus on remaining Sinaloa and CJNG leadership amid post-arrest factional shifts. Key variables include additional extradition requests, potential leadership succession conflicts, and scheduled US prosecutions that could trigger further transfers before year-end. Market pricing reflects these enforcement trends alongside structural barriers such as territorial control and internal cartel resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Volume
$143,093Data de Término
28 fev 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Enhanced US-Mexico intelligence sharing and joint enforcement actions have accelerated targeting of major cartel figures, including the February 2026 operation that killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) and multiple 2025 extraditions of high-ranking members to face US charges. Ongoing bilateral pressure, including DEA indictments and Mexican National Guard operations, supports trader focus on remaining Sinaloa and CJNG leadership amid post-arrest factional shifts. Key variables include additional extradition requests, potential leadership succession conflicts, and scheduled US prosecutions that could trigger further transfers before year-end. Market pricing reflects these enforcement trends alongside structural barriers such as territorial control and internal cartel resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$143,093Data de Término
28 fev 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Enhanced US-Mexico intelligence sharing and joint enforcement actions have accelerated targeting of major cartel figures, including the February 2026 operation that killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) and multiple 2025 extraditions of high-ranking members to face US charges. Ongoing bilateral pressure, including DEA indictments and Mexican National Guard operations, supports trader focus on remaining Sinaloa and CJNG leadership amid post-arrest factional shifts. Key variables include additional extradition requests, potential leadership succession conflicts, and scheduled US prosecutions that could trigger further transfers before year-end. Market pricing reflects these enforcement trends alongside structural barriers such as territorial control and internal cartel resilience.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions