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icon for Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?

Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?

icon for Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?

Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?

$537,149 Vol.

30 jul 2026
Polymarket

$537,149 Vol.

Polymarket

Jacob Tsimerman

$54,904 Vol.

87%

Hong Wang

$83,265 Vol.

86%

John Pardon

$85,626 Vol.

66%

Yu Deng

$119,846 Vol.

63%

Vesselin Dimitrov

$0 Vol.

49%

Sam Raskin

$2,597 Vol.

23%

Jack Thorne

$101,288 Vol.

26%

Alexander Efimov

$578 Vol.

24%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$84,585 Vol.

21%

Aleksandr Logunov

$263 Vol.

31%

Will Sawin

$4,198 Vol.

14%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, the field's highest honor for mathematicians under 40, thanks to her landmark resolution of the Kakeya conjecture alongside other major advances in geometric measure theory. Trader sentiment on prediction platforms reflects this momentum, with her implied probability topping 85% amid a competitive field that includes Jacob Tsimerman's unconditional proof of the André–Oort conjecture and Jack Thorne's contributions to arithmetic geometry and the Langlands program. The awards, typically given to two-to-four recipients, will be announced July 23 at the ICM opening ceremony in Philadelphia, where guild-like IMU voting patterns and recent breakthrough visibility often shape outcomes. Late shifts remain possible if additional high-profile results surface before the cutoff.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$537,149
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, the field's highest honor for mathematicians under 40, thanks to her landmark resolution of the Kakeya conjecture alongside other major advances in geometric measure theory. Trader sentiment on prediction platforms reflects this momentum, with her implied probability topping 85% amid a competitive field that includes Jacob Tsimerman's unconditional proof of the André–Oort conjecture and Jack Thorne's contributions to arithmetic geometry and the Langlands program. The awards, typically given to two-to-four recipients, will be announced July 23 at the ICM opening ceremony in Philadelphia, where guild-like IMU voting patterns and recent breakthrough visibility often shape outcomes. Late shifts remain possible if additional high-profile results surface before the cutoff.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$537,149
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jacob Tsimerman" at 87%, followed by "Hong Wang" at 86%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" has generated $537.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" is "Jacob Tsimerman" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Hong Wang" at 86%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.