Reza Pahlavi has remained in exile since 1979 and holds no official position inside Iran, making any entry dependent on either a negotiated political transition or a significant shift in regime control over borders and security. Recent catalysts include the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, which triggered heightened instability and prompted Pahlavi to issue public calls for a transitional framework and state his readiness to return “as soon as conditions allow.” Iranian authorities continue to maintain territorial control, and no verified diplomatic or security arrangements have been reported that would permit his entry before major institutional changes occur. Traders therefore track ongoing conflict developments, opposition coordination, and any signals of regime fragmentation or external negotiations as the primary variables that could alter the probability of a 2026 visit.