US military operations in Venezuela reached a decisive point with the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro via targeted airstrikes and special forces under Operation Absolute Resolve, shifting focus to interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez, US-backed oil agreements granting Washington stakes in major fields, and ongoing negotiations between the interim government and opposition factions. Subsequent developments include sanctions adjustments tied to earthquake relief, continued Caribbean interdiction strikes against drug networks, and private-sector energy investments, all under the implicit threat of additional US action for noncompliance. These steps have reduced the immediate need for a broader ground invasion while sustaining leverage through economic and diplomatic channels. Trader assessments of near-term invasion probabilities reflect this pattern of calibrated pressure rather than large-scale troop deployment, alongside domestic constraints, regional reactions, and scheduled political talks that could further stabilize or alter the trajectory.