Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 65-89 X posts by Elon Musk from April 13-15 at 48.5% implied probability, with 40-64 close behind at 29%, driven by his recent moderation to 20-30 daily replies and quotes amid political rants, Tesla FSD demos, and SpaceX updates. After spiking over 300 posts on April 7 amid securities fraud rulings and SpaceX IPO speculation, volume normalized in the April 9-11 window to roughly 70-80 total per trackers, curbing bets on extremes. Weekend timing signals lighter engagement absent viral catalysts like Starship tests or culture war flare-ups, though Musk's unpredictable commentary keeps higher bins viable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено65–89 49%
40-64 29%
90-114 15%
115-139 3.6%
$41,843 Объем
$41,843 Объем
Менее 40
2%
40-64
29%
65–89
49%
90-114
15%
115-139
4%
140-164
1%
165–189
1%
190-214
1%
215–239
<1%
240+
<1%
65–89 49%
40-64 29%
90-114 15%
115-139 3.6%
$41,843 Объем
$41,843 Объем
Менее 40
2%
40-64
29%
65–89
49%
90-114
15%
115-139
4%
140-164
1%
165–189
1%
190-214
1%
215–239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 65-89 X posts by Elon Musk from April 13-15 at 48.5% implied probability, with 40-64 close behind at 29%, driven by his recent moderation to 20-30 daily replies and quotes amid political rants, Tesla FSD demos, and SpaceX updates. After spiking over 300 posts on April 7 amid securities fraud rulings and SpaceX IPO speculation, volume normalized in the April 9-11 window to roughly 70-80 total per trackers, curbing bets on extremes. Weekend timing signals lighter engagement absent viral catalysts like Starship tests or culture war flare-ups, though Musk's unpredictable commentary keeps higher bins viable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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