Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data amid sticky inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike tied to Iran war disruptions, tempering rate-cut expectations despite the Fed's March projection for one 25 basis point reduction sometime in 2026. Solid nonfarm payroll growth of 178,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.3% underscore labor market strength, positioning the 13.5% odds for a modest cut as a hedge against potential softening. Chair Powell's March 18 remarks emphasized slower disinflation progress, with futures implying steady fed funds around 3.6%; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 78%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 14%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.0%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 3.5%
$3,651,717 Объем
$3,651,717 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
3%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
14%
Без изменений
78%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Без изменений 78%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 14%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.0%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 3.5%
$3,651,717 Объем
$3,651,717 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$162,097 Объем
3%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$111,948 Объем
14%
Без изменений
$171,951 Объем
78%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,017,761 Объем
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$187,960 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data amid sticky inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike tied to Iran war disruptions, tempering rate-cut expectations despite the Fed's March projection for one 25 basis point reduction sometime in 2026. Solid nonfarm payroll growth of 178,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.3% underscore labor market strength, positioning the 13.5% odds for a modest cut as a hedge against potential softening. Chair Powell's March 18 remarks emphasized slower disinflation progress, with futures implying steady fed funds around 3.6%; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$3,651,717Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data amid sticky inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike tied to Iran war disruptions, tempering rate-cut expectations despite the Fed's March projection for one 25 basis point reduction sometime in 2026. Solid nonfarm payroll growth of 178,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.3% underscore labor market strength, positioning the 13.5% odds for a modest cut as a hedge against potential softening. Chair Powell's March 18 remarks emphasized slower disinflation progress, with futures implying steady fed funds around 3.6%; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$3,651,717Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data amid sticky inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike tied to Iran war disruptions, tempering rate-cut expectations despite the Fed's March projection for one 25 basis point reduction sometime in 2026. Solid nonfarm payroll growth of 178,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.3% underscore labor market strength, positioning the 13.5% odds for a modest cut as a hedge against potential softening. Chair Powell's March 18 remarks emphasized slower disinflation progress, with futures implying steady fed funds around 3.6%; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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