Elevated May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market holding unemployment steady at 4.3%, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Traders view the recent acceleration in headline and core measures as sustaining a restrictive policy stance, consistent with forward-looking futures pricing that has largely priced out cuts for 2026 while leaving modest room for later hikes. The June 16-17 FOMC decision and associated projections, alongside upcoming June employment and inflation data, represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly shift these probabilities if labor conditions soften or price pressures ease more than expected.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 94%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 1.8%
$10,017,487 Объем
$10,017,487 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
2%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 94%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 1.8%
$10,017,487 Объем
$10,017,487 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$1,504,103 Объем
2%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$1,107,229 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$1,676,185 Объем
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$4,147,549 Объем
2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,582,963 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market holding unemployment steady at 4.3%, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Traders view the recent acceleration in headline and core measures as sustaining a restrictive policy stance, consistent with forward-looking futures pricing that has largely priced out cuts for 2026 while leaving modest room for later hikes. The June 16-17 FOMC decision and associated projections, alongside upcoming June employment and inflation data, represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly shift these probabilities if labor conditions soften or price pressures ease more than expected.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$10,017,487Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market holding unemployment steady at 4.3%, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Traders view the recent acceleration in headline and core measures as sustaining a restrictive policy stance, consistent with forward-looking futures pricing that has largely priced out cuts for 2026 while leaving modest room for later hikes. The June 16-17 FOMC decision and associated projections, alongside upcoming June employment and inflation data, represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly shift these probabilities if labor conditions soften or price pressures ease more than expected.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$10,017,487Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market holding unemployment steady at 4.3%, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Traders view the recent acceleration in headline and core measures as sustaining a restrictive policy stance, consistent with forward-looking futures pricing that has largely priced out cuts for 2026 while leaving modest room for later hikes. The June 16-17 FOMC decision and associated projections, alongside upcoming June employment and inflation data, represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly shift these probabilities if labor conditions soften or price pressures ease more than expected.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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