Elevated inflation readings near 4.2% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% and steady job gains have anchored trader consensus on no change at the July FOMC meeting, reflected in the 93.5% market-implied odds for holding the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes highlighted risks of persistent price pressures from geopolitical factors, shifting expectations away from easing and toward potential later tightening if data warrant. This positioning aligns with the data-dependent policy stance and recent futures pricing that largely rules out near-term moves of 25 basis points or more. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming CPI or payrolls releases before the July 28-29 decision could still introduce volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 94%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 1.9%
$10,018,029 Объем
$10,018,029 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
2%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 94%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 1.9%
$10,018,029 Объем
$10,018,029 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$1,504,103 Объем
2%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$1,107,251 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$1,697,507 Объем
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$4,149,496 Объем
2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,584,569 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings near 4.2% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% and steady job gains have anchored trader consensus on no change at the July FOMC meeting, reflected in the 93.5% market-implied odds for holding the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes highlighted risks of persistent price pressures from geopolitical factors, shifting expectations away from easing and toward potential later tightening if data warrant. This positioning aligns with the data-dependent policy stance and recent futures pricing that largely rules out near-term moves of 25 basis points or more. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming CPI or payrolls releases before the July 28-29 decision could still introduce volatility.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$10,018,029Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings near 4.2% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% and steady job gains have anchored trader consensus on no change at the July FOMC meeting, reflected in the 93.5% market-implied odds for holding the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes highlighted risks of persistent price pressures from geopolitical factors, shifting expectations away from easing and toward potential later tightening if data warrant. This positioning aligns with the data-dependent policy stance and recent futures pricing that largely rules out near-term moves of 25 basis points or more. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming CPI or payrolls releases before the July 28-29 decision could still introduce volatility.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$10,018,029Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings near 4.2% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% and steady job gains have anchored trader consensus on no change at the July FOMC meeting, reflected in the 93.5% market-implied odds for holding the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes highlighted risks of persistent price pressures from geopolitical factors, shifting expectations away from easing and toward potential later tightening if data warrant. This positioning aligns with the data-dependent policy stance and recent futures pricing that largely rules out near-term moves of 25 basis points or more. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming CPI or payrolls releases before the July 28-29 decision could still introduce volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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