Recent rejection by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of a U.S.-backed 15-point Board of Peace plan has reinforced trader views that large-scale foreign military intervention in Gaza remains unlikely through year-end. The plan, announced by President Trump on July 31, calls for phased Hamas disarmament verified by guarantor states, followed by deployment of a proposed International Stabilization Force with personnel pledges from Albania, Indonesia, Morocco, and others to monitor a ceasefire and support transitional governance. Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw until full disarmament occurs, stalling the roadmap despite Hamas consent to gradual decommissioning and prior hostage releases. Ongoing limited Israeli strikes and humanitarian access constraints continue amid the fragile truce established under UN resolution 2803, with any shift in odds tied to verifiable progress on weapons handover or new diplomatic breakthroughs before scheduled mandate reviews.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоEgypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
Egypt called on the US to expedite the deployment of the international stabilization force and ensure humanitarian aid delivery, reflecting regional pressure to move forward with foreign intervention. However, Israeli government had not granted final approval, keeping deployment uncertain and market prices low.
Israeli security cabinet maintains control over Gaza, limiting international force deployment
Despite approvals, Israel maintained that its forces would continue to hold key positions in Gaza and that no further withdrawal would occur until Hamas was fully disarmed, limiting the scope and timing of international force deployment and dampening market expectations.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, complicating peace plan implementation
December 31 drops to 28%6%
Israeli military operations continued in Gaza, including strikes killing Palestinians, which undermined ceasefire stability and delayed progress on the peace plan and international force deployment. This ongoing conflict contributed to market pessimism about foreign intervention occurring soon.
EU extends mandate of border assistance mission at Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt
December 31 rises to 28%2%
The European Union extended its border assistance mission at the Rafah crossing, facilitating movement and humanitarian access but not constituting foreign military intervention inside Gaza, thus having limited impact on market expectations for foreign forces entering Gaza.
Moroccan officers conduct field visit to Gaza in preparation for international stabilization force deployment
August 31 dips to 3%4%
Moroccan officers, part of the planned international stabilization force, conducted a field visit to Gaza as part of preparations for deployment. Despite this, Israeli government had not granted final approval for deployment, and Hamas had not disarmed, contributing to market skepticism and price decline.
Continued Israeli strikes and Hamas refusal to disarm stall Gaza peace plan implementation
September 30 drops to 9%5%
Israeli strikes continued in Gaza despite ceasefire agreements, and Hamas refused to fully disarm, stalling the implementation of the US-backed peace plan and the deployment of the international stabilization force. This ongoing conflict and lack of progress led to a sharp drop in market prices reflecting doubts about foreign intervention occurring by the deadline.
Palestinians and international observers report ongoing violence and instability in Gaza
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Reports from Gaza highlighted continued violence, humanitarian challenges, and instability despite ceasefire and peace efforts, dampening market expectations for timely foreign intervention on the ground.
Uganda parliament approves sending troops to Gaza as part of international force
September 30 dips to 9%4%
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza for the ISF, indicating expanding international participation. However, actual deployment remained pending Israeli approval, limiting immediate impact on market prices.
Criticism mounts over Netanyahu’s reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Public and media criticism highlighted Netanyahu’s resistance to international intervention without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the deadline.
Criticism mounts over Israel's reluctance to fully withdraw from Gaza delaying international force
December 31 dips to 29%2%
Public and media criticism highlighted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's reluctance to fully withdraw from Gaza, which is seen as a major obstacle to the deployment of the international stabilization force, dampening market confidence further.
US President Trump demands reparations from Iran for Gaza and Lebanon damage
December 31 drops to 26%8%
Trump announced demands for reparations from Iran related to damage in Gaza and Lebanon, highlighting US involvement in regional diplomacy but no indication of US or other foreign forces entering Gaza for operational roles.
Israel rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan, demanding full Hamas disarmament first
September 30 drops to 7%9%
Israel's rejection of the peace plan and insistence on complete Hamas disarmament before troop withdrawal undermined prospects for foreign operational deployment, contributing to a sharp market decline in intervention probability.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Netanyahu publicly rejected the 15-point peace plan proposed by Trump's Board of Peace, emphasizing that Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms. This stance cast doubt on the timeline and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israel considers partial Gaza withdrawal with multinational force replacement
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Israeli security officials discussed plans for a partial military withdrawal from Gaza, with the multinational ISF set to replace troops in some areas under the ceasefire plan. This indicated potential future foreign operational presence on the ground, affecting market expectations.
Preparations for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza begin
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for the deployment of the ISF in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward physical entry but no confirmed deployment yet, sustaining low market confidence in imminent intervention.
Netanyahu rejects US-backed Gaza disarmament and withdrawal plan
September 30 drops to 13%14%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly opposed the Board of Peace’s 15-point plan for Gaza, including disarmament and withdrawal, casting doubt on the timing and scope of foreign force deployment and causing market declines.
Preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza begin
Israeli TV reported that preparations for the ISF deployment in Gaza had started, indicating progress toward actual foreign intervention but with no confirmed troop entry yet, maintaining low market confidence.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 28%5%
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for ISF deployment in parts of Gaza have begun, indicating progress toward foreign operational presence and affecting market optimism.
Israel rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan, Netanyahu demands Hamas disarmament first
December 31 drops to 26%8%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly rejected the US-backed 15-point peace plan for Gaza, insisting Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms, casting doubt on the deployment of foreign stabilization forces and reducing market confidence.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan
September 30 plunges to 7%15%
Netanyahu publicly rejected the peace plan, stating Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms, casting doubt on the timing and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment within the timeframe.
Preparations begin for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for deployment of the international stabilization force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward physical foreign intervention. However, no confirmed entry of foreign troops was reported by this date, tempering market optimism.
Israeli TV reports preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 27%7%
Reports emerged that preparations for the multinational ISF deployment in Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward foreign intervention but no confirmed operational presence yet, causing minor market fluctuations.
Ugandan parliament confirms troop deployment to Gaza for Trump’s ceasefire plan
August 31 rises to 7%1%
Following parliamentary approval, Uganda confirmed its commitment to send soldiers to Gaza under the ISF, reinforcing multinational participation but with deployment still pending Israeli withdrawal and Hamas disarmament.
Hamas warns US over foreign troop deployment, Israel warns of conflict internationalization
Hamas expressed concerns about foreign troops from hostile states entering Gaza, while Israel warned such deployments could internationalize the conflict, increasing tensions and uncertainty over foreign intervention.
Reports of delays and scaling back in deployment of international peacekeeping force to Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%25%
Despite troop commitments, the ISF faced significant delays and scaling back in deploying the promised international peacekeeping force to Gaza, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza, dampening market optimism.
Uganda approves sending troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
December 31 jumps to 34%6%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force proposed by the Board of Peace, signaling growing international commitment to the mission. This development was a positive signal for the market but actual deployment remained pending.
Ugandan parliament approves sending troops to Gaza as part of international force
Uganda's parliamentary approval to deploy troops to Gaza as part of the ISF marked a concrete commitment from a foreign country, supporting the likelihood of foreign personnel entering Gaza operationally.
Hamas rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%19%
Hamas publicly rejected both disarmament and the presence of external security forces, stalling the implementation of the ceasefire roadmap and reducing market expectations for foreign intervention within Gaza territory.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 31%18%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to the international stabilization force in Gaza, indicating expanding international commitments to the ISF. This suggested progress in assembling the multinational force but did not confirm physical entry into Gaza territory yet.
Ugandan parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
Uganda's parliamentary approval to send troops to Gaza as part of the ISF demonstrated growing international commitment to the peace plan, positively influencing market sentiment about foreign intervention.
Uganda approves sending troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force proposed by Trump's Board of Peace, signaling concrete steps toward actual foreign military presence in Gaza. This development briefly supported market optimism about foreign intervention.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, marking a concrete step toward assembling foreign personnel for operational roles in Gaza.
Uganda formally approves sending troops to Gaza international force
Uganda's parliament formally approved the deployment of troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, reinforcing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission despite delays in actual deployment.
Eight Arab and Muslim countries denounce Israeli attacks on Gaza hospitals amid ceasefire
December 31 plunges to 34%21%
Foreign ministers condemned Israeli strikes on Gaza medical facilities, highlighting ongoing violence and undermining confidence in peace plan implementation and foreign force deployment, leading to market price declines.
Uganda approves sending troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
September 30 dips to 11%1%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force proposed by the Board of Peace, signaling growing international commitment but no immediate deployment inside Gaza yet.
Ugandan parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
August 31 drops to 3%5%
Ugandan lawmakers approved sending troops to Gaza as part of the multinational ISF, marking a concrete step toward multinational deployment and affecting market prices downward due to ongoing uncertainties.
Ugandan parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza stabilization force
Ugandan lawmakers formally authorized the deployment of Ugandan troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, marking a concrete step toward multinational force deployment.
Israel Maintains Control Over Gaza and Conditions Deployment on Hamas Disarmament
Israeli officials reiterated that the IDF will continue to hold the Yellow Line and will not withdraw further until Hamas is fully disarmed and Gaza is demilitarized, casting uncertainty on the timing of foreign force deployment and affecting market confidence.
Egypt presses Israel to reopen Rafah crossing for goods into Gaza
Egypt urged Israel to reopen the Rafah border crossing to allow humanitarian aid and goods into Gaza, supporting stabilization efforts alongside foreign intervention plans.
Ugandan Parliament Approves Deployment of Troops to Gaza for International Stabilization Force
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Uganda's parliament approved sending troops to join the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking a significant commitment from an African nation to the multinational peacekeeping effort, influencing market perceptions of foreign intervention likelihood.
Israeli military chief states IDF will continue proactive operations in Gaza despite peace plan
The Israeli military chief declared ongoing proactive IDF operations in Gaza, signaling continued Israeli military presence and complicating prospects for full foreign force deployment and Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu states no withdrawal until Hamas fully disarmed
September 30 plunges to 22%31%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas was genuinely disarmed, signaling a hardline stance that delayed foreign peacekeeping deployment and contributed to market price declines.
Jordan calls emergency meeting over Israeli threats to al-Aqsa mosque amid Gaza conflict
September 30 rises to 24%4%
Jordan convened Arab and Islamic foreign ministers to discuss Israeli plans perceived as threatening religious sites, reflecting regional diplomatic tensions but no deployment of foreign forces into Gaza territory.
Netanyahu states no Israeli withdrawal from Gaza until Hamas disarmed
December 31 plunges to 33%31%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israeli troops would not withdraw from Gaza without genuine Hamas disarmament, tempering expectations for immediate foreign force deployment and causing market price declines.
Israel escalates deadly attacks on Gaza, defying US-backed peace plan
September 30 plunges to 8%16%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the ceasefire and peace plan, threatening the US-backed roadmap and reducing market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza, threatening US-backed peace plan
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the ceasefire and peace plan, raising doubts about the timing and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza, defying US-backed peace plan
December 31 drops to 51%14%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the peace plan, undermining ceasefire progress and casting doubt on the feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment within the timeframe, leading to market declines.
Israel escalates attacks on Gaza, threatening US-backed peace roadmap
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Israel intensified military strikes in Gaza, undermining the fragile ceasefire and complicating implementation of the US-backed peace plan and the deployment of the International Stabilization Force.
Israel kills 19 in Gaza despite Trump’s peace plan and ceasefire roadmap
September 30 plunges to 22%31%
Israeli airstrikes continued killing civilians and damaging medical facilities despite the Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force's announced ceasefire roadmap, indicating no foreign peacekeeping or military forces had entered Gaza to enforce peace.
Market optimism spikes on reports of deployment preparations for Gaza stabilization force
December 31 surges to 61%19%
Reports emerged that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza had begun, including reconnaissance visits and training, leading to a sharp increase in market prices reflecting renewed optimism about foreign intervention.
Al-Quds Brigades consent to Hamas disarmament plan
September 30 jumps to 24%8%
The Al-Quds Brigades agreed to the disarmament plan, signaling progress in peace efforts and raising hopes for foreign peacekeeping deployment, reflected in a temporary price increase.
Al-Quds Brigades consent to Hamas disarmament plan in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
The Al-Quds Brigades agreed to the disarmament plan, signaling progress in the peace process and potentially facilitating foreign stabilization forces' operational roles. This contributed to a temporary market price increase.
Israeli airstrike hits medical supplies warehouse in Gaza amid ceasefire breaches
December 31 plunges to 32%22%
An Israeli airstrike targeted the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital's pharmaceuticals warehouse in Deir el-Balah, worsening humanitarian conditions and undermining the US-backed ceasefire plan, signaling continued Israeli military dominance without foreign operational intervention on the ground.
Israeli airstrike hits medical supplies warehouse in Gaza amid ongoing tensions
August 31 dips to 6%1%
An Israeli airstrike targeted a pharmaceuticals warehouse at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Gaza, highlighting ongoing hostilities despite ceasefire efforts and complicating prospects for foreign force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Preparations for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza begin
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling operational progress though no full deployment had occurred yet.
Palestinians report ongoing Israeli strikes in Gaza despite ceasefire
August 31 plunges to 5%19%
Despite ceasefire agreements, Israeli forces continued air strikes and shelling in Gaza, causing civilian casualties and undermining stability. This ongoing violence reduced confidence in the peace plan and foreign force deployment, pushing market prices down.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 34%3%
Israeli media reported that actual preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling progress toward physical foreign intervention. This development temporarily increased market confidence in near-term deployment despite ongoing political and security challenges.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 54%5%
Kosovo soldiers arrived in Israel to join the ISF supporting Gaza security efforts in logistics and civil affairs, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
August 31 drops to 3%13%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force, signaling growing international support but no immediate deployment on the ground yet, contributing to market uncertainty.
Israeli attacks continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, UN reports
December 31 dips to 52%4%
UN agencies reported ongoing Israeli attacks on civilian infrastructure in Gaza, including schools, undermining the fragile ceasefire and complicating stabilization efforts. This heightened concerns about security and delayed foreign force deployment, causing market declines.
Israeli airstrikes continue in Gaza amid stalled peace plan implementation
August 31 drops to 3%13%
Israeli strikes killed Palestinians and damaged infrastructure in Gaza, undermining ceasefire efforts and raising doubts about the feasibility of foreign peacekeepers entering Gaza soon, contributing to market price declines.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire and disarmament talks
December 31 drops to 52%7%
Israel conducted airstrikes in Gaza amid ongoing peace talks, casting doubt on the implementation of the peace plan and reducing market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and progress on Gaza peace effort
September 30 surges to 51%26%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, a key condition for foreign stabilization forces to operate. This announcement briefly boosted market confidence in foreign intervention prospects.
Moroccan troops prepare for deployment to Gaza as part of international stabilization force
December 31 surges to 53%16%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the international stabilization force, including deployment of officers and establishment of a field military hospital in Gaza. This concrete preparation indicated progress toward foreign intervention, temporarily boosting market optimism.
US President Donald Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups, contingent on Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes for foreign force deployment but with ongoing uncertainties.
US President Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including Hamas disarmament agreement
December 31 surges to 66%35%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza, a key step for the peace plan and foreign force deployment. This announcement initially raised optimism and market prices.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
December 31 surges to 66%32%
Trump's Board of Peace announced a roadmap agreement for Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes for peace and foreign involvement. However, Hamas conditioned disarmament on Israeli withdrawal progress, and Israeli strikes continued, limiting immediate foreign deployment prospects.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 52%17%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the ISF, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force, but no troops had yet entered Gaza, maintaining market skepticism about near-term foreign intervention.
Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and progress on Gaza peace effort
December 31 surges to 57%26%
US President Donald Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas, a major diplomatic milestone that raised hopes for foreign intervention and influenced market prices upward.
Morocco Officially Joins International Stabilization Force for Gaza
September 30 jumps to 64%11%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the International Stabilization Force, committing military officers, police personnel, and a field hospital to support security and humanitarian efforts in Gaza, reinforcing the multinational mission's credibility.
Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including disarmament deal
December 31 surges to 59%33%
US President Donald Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, a key step for the peace plan and ISF deployment. This announcement briefly increased market optimism about foreign intervention.
White House unveils roadmap to demilitarize Gaza including international force deployment
December 31 surges to 63%37%
The White House announced a new framework for Gaza's demilitarization, including deployment of an international force led by the U.S. with commitments for over 5,000 troops. This announcement initially raised market expectations for foreign intervention.
Morocco completes troop commitment formalities for Gaza stabilization mission
Morocco finalized its troop commitment to the ISF with the signing of the Participating Country Agreement on July 16 and continued preparations for deployment, including training and operational planning, signaling progress toward actual foreign troop presence in Gaza.
Morocco conducts field visit to Gaza for peacekeeping mission preparations
December 31 rises to 28%2%
Moroccan officers conducted a field visit to Gaza as part of preparations for their participation in the International Stabilization Force, indicating active steps toward deployment despite ongoing political and security challenges.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and militant groups in Gaza
September 30 surges to 37%16%
Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement for Hamas and other groups to disarm, a key step for foreign force deployment, briefly boosting market optimism about international intervention in Gaza.
President Trump Announces Historic Agreement for Hamas Disarmament and Israeli Withdrawal
December 31 jumps to 56%14%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement for the complete disarmament of Hamas and phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, with the International Stabilization Force to work alongside a new Palestinian police force. This announcement significantly impacted market expectations for foreign intervention.
White House unveils roadmap to demilitarize Gaza including international force deployment
September 30 surges to 64%44%
The US announced a detailed framework for Gaza's demilitarization and international force deployment, with commitments for over 5,000 troops, raising market expectations for foreign intervention.
Egypt pushes to accelerate deployment of Gaza stabilization force
December 31 surges to 54%28%
Egypt, working with the US and regional partners, began constructing military facilities near the Gaza border to support the ISF deployment and increased humanitarian aid quietly. This indicated progress toward operationalizing the force, boosting market confidence temporarily.
Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including Hamas disarmament agreement
December 31 jumps to 56%13%
US President Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, a key step for the peace plan and potential foreign force deployment. This announcement briefly boosted market optimism about intervention prospects.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and implement peace roadmap
August 31 jumps to 52%10%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, a key condition for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force. This announcement initially raised hopes for progress but was met with skepticism due to ongoing Israeli control and Hamas resistance.
Trump touts progress on Gaza peace effort amid ongoing challenges
December 31 jumps to 42%12%
US President Trump announced progress on the Gaza peace plan, including Hamas's agreement to disarm and plans for Israeli withdrawal. However, significant challenges remained, including verifying compliance and Israeli security concerns, which kept market sentiment volatile.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and roadmap for Gaza peace plan implementation
December 31 surges to 53%23%
President Trump and the Board of Peace announced a historic breakthrough on July 30, 2026, including a roadmap for full implementation of the ceasefire plan, with disarmament of Hamas and Israeli withdrawal as key components. This raised hopes for foreign stabilization force deployment but also highlighted ongoing challenges, influencing market prices.
US-brokered deal allows limited evacuation via Rafah border crossing
December 31 rises to 34%1%
The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt was opened under agreed conditions to allow limited evacuation of foreign nationals, but no foreign military or police forces entered Gaza for operational roles, keeping foreign intervention prospects low.
Moroccan Officers Tour Gaza Ahead of Multinational Force Deployment
August 31 surges to 26%20%
Moroccan military officers conducted a field visit to Gaza in preparation for their participation in the International Stabilization Force, signaling operational progress and increasing market confidence in foreign intervention.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%1%
Egypt called on the US to expedite the deployment of the ISF to prevent ceasefire collapse and support postwar governance, signaling regional pressure to move forward despite ongoing challenges.
Israeli security cabinet approves legal framework for ISF with conditions
December 31 rises to 54%1%
The cabinet approved legal measures for ISF entry, requiring specific approval from Netanyahu and ministers, with Israel maintaining control over large parts of Gaza until Hamas disarms.
Israel approves deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Following cabinet approval, Israel authorized the ISF deployment near Rafah, coordinating with the IDF and maintaining control over much of Gaza, signaling progress but with operational constraints that tempered market optimism.
Uganda parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza peacekeeping mission
December 31 rises to 26%1%
Uganda's parliament gave preliminary approval to send troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking a concrete commitment from a contributing country and supporting the peace plan's implementation.
Experts say Israel’s approval of limited Gaza force is a calculated political maneuver
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Analysts interpreted Israel's approval of a constrained pilot project for foreign forces in Gaza as a political move to deflect US pressure and fragment Gaza, rather than a genuine transition to peace. This skepticism contributed to market price declines.
Egyptian Red Crescent delivers 243rd aid convoy to Gaza with over 2,673 tons of supplies
The Egyptian Red Crescent sent a large humanitarian convoy to Gaza, reflecting ongoing aid efforts amid the conflict but not constituting foreign military intervention, thus having limited direct impact on market prices for foreign operational deployment.
Israel confirms limited entry of International Stabilization Force with 200 troops
December 31 plunges to 16%37%
Israeli security cabinet voted to approve limited entry of the ISF, including 200 troops from friendly countries such as Morocco and Uganda, into Gaza's humanitarian zones pending further approvals.
Israel’s approval of limited Gaza force seen as calculated political maneuver
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Experts interpreted Israel's approval of a constrained foreign force entry as a tactic to deflect US pressure and fragment Gaza, rather than a genuine peacekeeping deployment, dampening market confidence in a full foreign intervention.
Israel’s Security Cabinet approves deployment of International Stabilization Force headquarters near Rafah
December 31 jumps to 33%7%
The Israeli cabinet authorized establishment of the ISF headquarters near Rafah and preparations for deployment, marking a key step in the multinational force's planned entry into Gaza under the US peace plan.
Israel confirms framework for international stabilization force deployment in Gaza
Following cabinet approval, Israeli officials confirmed the framework for ISF deployment, emphasizing coordination with the IDF and restrictions on operating areas, which tempered expectations for rapid or large-scale foreign intervention.
Israeli cabinet gives initial approval for limited ISF deployment with 200 troops
September 30 plunges to 21%32%
The Israeli security cabinet voted to approve limited entry of the ISF under the Board of Peace plan, including 200 troops from friendly countries, but deployment required further approvals. This reinforced the market's temporary optimism about foreign intervention.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves multinational Board of Peace force deployment in Gaza
December 31 rises to 30%3%
The Israeli Security Cabinet approved the deployment of the multinational Board of Peace force in Gaza, authorizing the establishment of the ISF headquarters near Rafah and paving the way for preparations to deploy the mission. This was a significant political endorsement but did not yet result in physical troop deployment.
Israeli cabinet approves deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%4%
Israel’s Security Cabinet approved the deployment of the ISF to Gaza as part of the US President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, authorizing establishment of ISF headquarters near Rafah and preparations for deployment. This formal approval was a major milestone but actual deployment remained pending.
Israel approves limited entry of international peacekeeping force into Gaza
December 31 drops to 25%5%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework for the International Stabilization Force to enter Gaza with about 200 troops from friendly countries, including Uganda and Morocco. This was a constrained pilot project limited to areas outside Israeli control, signaling partial progress but also limitations.
Board of Peace force prepares for Gaza deployment amid Israeli approval
December 31 jumps to 35%8%
The Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force continued preparations for deployment in Gaza, including logistics and establishing a semi-military camp, signaling operational readiness following Israeli cabinet approval.
Israeli cabinet approves entry of multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 33%6%
Israel's security cabinet approved a limited pilot project allowing foreign security forces into a narrow area of Gaza, seen as a political maneuver to deflect US pressure rather than a full operational deployment. This raised market hopes briefly but skepticism remained due to the constrained nature of the approval.
Israeli cabinet approves limited entry of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 28%22%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework for the entry of about 200 troops from friendly countries into Gaza as part of the US-led Board of Peace plan, signaling progress but with restrictions and no full withdrawal yet. This approval raised hopes for foreign intervention but also uncertainty about timing and scope.
Board of Peace praises Israel’s approval for International Stabilization Force deployment
December 31 jumps to 35%5%
The Board of Peace welcomed Israel’s cabinet approval for ISF deployment, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing Gaza and supporting demilitarization, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Uganda formally approves deployment of troops to Gaza for peace mission
December 31 rises to 35%4%
Uganda's parliament authorized deployment of a UPDF contingent to Gaza as part of the multinational ISF, marking concrete troop commitments from foreign states.
Israeli security cabinet approves entry of international force into Gaza
December 31 surges to 58%29%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework allowing the ISF to enter Gaza areas beyond Israeli control, including deployment of around 200 troops from friendly countries. This was a critical step toward actual foreign intervention, causing a temporary market price increase.
Israel approves legal framework for Gaza force with 200 troops from friendly countries
December 31 rises to 54%1%
Israel's cabinet gave initial approval for the International Stabilization Force to enter Gaza with about 200 troops from countries friendly to Israel, but deployment required further approval from top ministers. This cautious step tempered market expectations.
Israel's cabinet approves limited entry of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 41%9%
The Israeli security cabinet voted to approve the limited entry of the International Stabilization Force, including about 200 troops from friendly countries, to operate in a pilot humanitarian zone in Gaza. This official approval raised market optimism about foreign intervention but with constraints on deployment scope.
Israeli security cabinet approves deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 surges to 47%27%
The Israeli cabinet approved the deployment of about 200 troops from friendly countries as part of the International Stabilization Force under the Board of Peace plan, marking a significant step toward foreign intervention in Gaza.
Israel grants permission for peacekeeping troops to operate in Gaza areas outside Israeli control
December 31 surges to 59%30%
Israel's security cabinet approved a legal framework allowing a multinational peacekeeping force, including troops from Morocco and Indonesia, to operate in Gaza areas not under Israeli control, advancing the peace plan and increasing market confidence in foreign intervention.
Israeli security cabinet approves limited entry of international stabilization force into Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%4%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework allowing up to 200 troops from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco to enter Gaza areas not under Israeli control, marking a key step toward foreign intervention.
Israeli cabinet approves deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 surges to 51%21%
Israel's security cabinet approved the deployment of the International Stabilization Force (ISF) to Gaza as part of the US President Donald Trump's peace plan. The approval allowed peacekeeping troops to operate in areas outside Israeli control, a critical step towards foreign intervention, though actual deployment remained pending.
Israel approves entry of international stabilization force into Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%16%
Following cabinet approval, Israel authorized the entry of up to 200 troops from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco into Gaza under the US-backed peace plan, marking a tangible step toward foreign intervention.
Board of Peace envoy welcomes Israel's approval for ISF deployment in Gaza
Nickolay Mladenov, high representative of the Board of Peace for Gaza, praised Israel's decision to allow the ISF deployment, calling it a critical part of the framework to stabilize Gaza, support demilitarization, and enable transition to Palestinian administration.
Israeli official confirms cabinet approval of legal framework for Gaza force with 200 troops
December 31 surges to 66%16%
An Israeli official confirmed cabinet approval of the legal framework for the International Stabilization Force, including about 200 troops from friendly countries, marking a key milestone toward actual foreign military presence in Gaza.
Israel approves future deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 27%4%
The Israeli cabinet's approval of the ISF's future deployment marked a significant milestone in the peace plan, with expectations of initial troop deployment and coordination with Israeli forces.
Israel to allow multinational security forces into Gaza as part of US peace plan
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel would permit multinational security forces, including 200 personnel from countries like Uganda and Morocco, to enter Gaza in areas not under Israeli control, pending individual approvals. This reinforced the market's positive reaction to the prospect of foreign intervention.
Uganda receives formal request to contribute troops to Gaza stabilization force
US President Donald Trump formally requested Uganda to contribute troops to the multinational International Stabilization Force in Gaza, indicating international support and troop commitments for the mission.
Israel’s security cabinet authorizes multinational stabilization force deployment to Gaza
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Israel approved a legal framework for deploying a multinational stabilization force under the US-backed Board of Peace and UN Resolution 2803, with Morocco and other countries pledging personnel to monitor ceasefire and support governance. This raised market expectations for foreign intervention but did not confirm physical entry.
Israel's cabinet approves entry of multinational stabilization force into Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%16%
Israel's Diplomatic-Security Cabinet approved the deployment of the multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza, a key step toward operational foreign intervention, though opposition remained within the cabinet.
Egyptian aid convoy enters Gaza via Rafah crossing amid ongoing humanitarian efforts
On July 26, Egypt sent its 242nd humanitarian aid convoy into Gaza through the Rafah crossing, supporting relief efforts as part of the broader peace plan. This highlighted ongoing international involvement in Gaza's stabilization, though not constituting foreign military intervention on the ground.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves ISF entry beyond Israeli-controlled zones in Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The Israeli Security Cabinet authorized the ISF to enter Gaza areas beyond Israeli control, signaling progress in the peace plan but maintaining Israeli military control over key zones, which tempered market enthusiasm.
Israel's security cabinet approves entry of international stabilization force into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 34%8%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework allowing a multinational International Stabilization Force (ISF) to enter Gaza areas beyond Israeli control, signaling official support for the US-backed peace plan. This approval raised market expectations for foreign intervention, causing a price increase.
Israeli cabinet approves legal framework for limited international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 surges to 53%19%
Israel's security cabinet approved a legal framework allowing a multinational International Stabilization Force (ISF) of about 200 troops from friendly countries to enter Gaza under strict conditions, including coordination with the Israeli military and no further Israeli withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed. This approval was a critical step toward possible foreign intervention but did not authorize immediate deployment, causing market fluctuations.
Israeli security cabinet approves legal framework for international force entry into Gaza
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Israel's security cabinet approved a legal framework allowing a multinational International Stabilization Force to enter Gaza in areas beyond Israeli control, including troops from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco. This approval was a critical step toward possible deployment, boosting market confidence temporarily.
Israel grants limited approval for peacekeeping troops outside Israeli control in Gaza
December 31 dips to 31%3%
Israel's security cabinet approved limited entry of the International Stabilization Force to operate in areas outside Israeli control, a key step in the US-backed peace plan. However, the force was restricted and Israel maintained control over significant parts of Gaza, tempering expectations of full foreign intervention.
Israel to allow multinational security force into Gaza ahead of Netanyahu's Washington visit
December 31 surges to 51%24%
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel will allow a multinational security force, including troops from Uganda and Morocco, to enter Gaza as part of the US-backed ceasefire plan. This announcement increased market optimism about foreign intervention in Gaza.
Israel's Diplomatic-Security Cabinet approves entry of multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza
December 31 surges to 59%28%
Israel's cabinet approved the deployment of the multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza despite opposition from National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. This official approval increased the likelihood of foreign personnel entering Gaza for operational roles, boosting market prices.
Egypt pushes to accelerate deployment of Gaza stabilization force
December 31 rises to 31%1%
Egypt, working with the US and regional partners, pushed to accelerate the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza to prevent ceasefire collapse and support postwar governance. Egypt also began constructing military facilities near its border to support the potential deployment, indicating regional backing but no immediate troop entry.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%16%
Egypt called on the US to expedite the deployment of the International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza to prevent ceasefire collapse and support postwar governance, signaling regional pressure to move forward with the peace plan. This raised hopes for intervention but also highlighted ongoing challenges, causing some market fluctuations.
Netanyahu opposes Turkish and Qatari troops in Gaza
December 31 drops to 34%7%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly rejected deployment of Turkish and Qatari troops in Gaza, reflecting political resistance to certain foreign forces entering Gaza and complicating international force composition, dampening market optimism.
Hamas agrees to facilitate peacekeeping force and administrative transition in Gaza
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Hamas representatives met with Egyptian officials and expressed willingness to facilitate the work of peacekeeping forces and transfer administrative control to a technocratic council, but insisted on non-interference, leaving operational deployment uncertain.
Morocco signs agreement to join International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Morocco agreed to participate in the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, signaling international intent for foreign operational roles. However, no reports confirmed physical deployment of foreign personnel on Gaza territory by this date, keeping market prices low.
UN condemns obstruction of humanitarian operations in Gaza by de facto authorities
December 31 rises to 35%4%
The UN condemned armed personnel affiliated with Gaza's de facto authorities for disrupting humanitarian aid, highlighting worsening conditions but no foreign military intervention on the ground. This maintained the market's low probability for foreign intervention.
Morocco signs Participating Country Agreement for Gaza stabilization mission
Morocco formalized its commitment to the ISF by signing the agreement, advancing the operational readiness of the multinational force and signaling imminent deployment.
Morocco signs on to international military stabilization force in post-war Gaza
Morocco officially signed an agreement to participate in the ISF for Gaza, reinforcing multinational efforts to stabilize the region but with no immediate troop deployment inside Gaza due to pending legal and political steps.
Morocco signs agreement to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 38%4%
Morocco signed the Participating Country Agreement with the ISF, committing to deploy troops to Gaza to support humanitarian aid and train Palestinian police. This formal commitment raised expectations for foreign intervention, briefly boosting market optimism.
Morocco signs agreement with Board of Peace to join Gaza international force
December 31 dips to 30%4%
Morocco's military signed a legal framework agreement with the Board of Peace to participate in the Gaza stabilization force, reflecting commitment to peace efforts. However, no deployment of troops into Gaza occurred, keeping the market's outlook cautious.
Morocco formalizes troop commitment to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 drops to 31%11%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the International Stabilization Force, becoming the first Arab and African nation to commit troops, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but still short of deployment.
Morocco signs agreement to join Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 33%2%
Morocco officially signed an agreement to participate in the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, committing military and police personnel as well as a military field hospital. This formal commitment was a significant step toward foreign intervention but actual deployment inside Gaza was still pending legal clearances, contributing to market uncertainty.
Morocco signs historic deal to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 32%2%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, marking a significant diplomatic milestone and raising market expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza.
Morocco signs legal framework to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 34%3%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF with a legal agreement, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force, though deployment inside Gaza remains pending, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Morocco signs Participating Country Agreement with International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Morocco formalized its troop commitment to the ISF, including deployment of officers and establishment of a field hospital in Gaza, advancing operational preparations for foreign intervention.
Morocco signs historic deal with Israel to deploy troops in Gaza under Abraham Accords framework
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Morocco became the first Arab state to formally commit military personnel and police to the Gaza International Stabilization Force, marking a significant diplomatic and military milestone but with deployment preparations ongoing.
Report: US struggles to deploy foreign Gaza peacekeepers amid political delays
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Reports indicated that the US-led Board of Peace was struggling to deploy pledged foreign peacekeepers to Gaza due to political reluctance from Israel and delays in signing Status of Forces Agreements. This stalled deployment contributed to the market's decline in probability for foreign intervention by the deadline.
UN reports ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza without foreign intervention
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported continued hostilities and worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza but no deployment of foreign military or police forces. This reinforced market expectations that no foreign intervention had occurred by mid-July.
UN Security Council authorizes International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 42%1%
The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2803 endorsing the establishment of a temporary international stabilization force in Gaza, providing a legal mandate and encouraging troop contributions. This formal backing increased market confidence in the likelihood of foreign intervention.
No foreign troops enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans, legal hurdles remain
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Despite the arrival of some foreign troops in Israel, no official deployment into Gaza occurred due to incomplete legal and political approvals. This reinforced market expectations that foreign intervention on the ground in Gaza would not happen by the end of 2026.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join emerging Gaza stabilization force
December 31 rises to 34%1%
A contingent of Kosovar soldiers arrived in Israel to join the multinational International Stabilization Force intended for Gaza, marking progress in assembling foreign personnel. However, deployment inside Gaza remained pending due to unresolved legal and political issues, limiting immediate impact on market probabilities.
Uganda agrees in principle to join International Stabilisation Force in Gaza
Uganda reportedly agreed in principle to deploy personnel to the ISF in Gaza following a US request, signaling progress in assembling foreign forces but with no confirmed physical deployment into Gaza yet.
Board of Peace endorses U.S.-led Comprehensive Plan for Gaza stabilization
December 31 drops to 42%6%
The Board of Peace, supported by the EU and international partners, endorsed a 20-point plan for Gaza's stabilization and reconstruction, including an International Stabilization Force. However, no deployment of foreign personnel on the ground was reported by this date, maintaining market skepticism.
Morocco signs agreement to join international stabilization force for Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Morocco officially agreed to participate in the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, signaling international plans for foreign operational presence. However, no actual deployment into Gaza territory occurred by mid-July, limiting immediate market impact.
UN condemns obstruction of humanitarian aid by Gaza authorities
December 31 rises to 34%2%
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator condemned the obstruction of humanitarian operations by Gaza's de facto authorities, highlighting ongoing internal challenges but no foreign military or police deployment. This contributed to the market's decline in the probability of foreign intervention.
Board of Peace develops logistics hub in Israel but no Gaza base established
Reports indicated the Board of Peace was building a logistics hub in southern Israel as a staging ground for the ISF, but no construction had begun on a permanent base inside Gaza, with no timeline for troop deployment into Gaza. This continued the pattern of delays and uncertainty.
Kosovo soldiers arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
Kosovo troops arrived in Israel to join the US-led International Stabilization Force but had not entered Gaza. The deployment was limited to Israel, leaving the question of actual foreign intervention in Gaza unresolved and contributing to market price decline.
US and Israel continue military actions in region amid Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Reports of ongoing US and Israeli military actions related to the broader regional conflict, including Gaza, did not include any officially acknowledged foreign forces entering Gaza for operational roles, keeping market expectations for foreign intervention low.
US launches new strikes amid US-Israel war on Iran and Gaza attacks
December 31 drops to 34%8%
On July 12, 2026, the US conducted new strikes related to the US-Israel conflict involving Iran and ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. Despite heightened military activity, no reports confirmed foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza territory.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Kosovo soldiers arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force, but legal and political obstacles prevented their entry into Gaza. This underscored ongoing delays and the absence of foreign personnel physically entering Gaza, maintaining market skepticism about intervention.
Israeli UAV strike targets buildings in Gaza City amid ongoing conflict
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Israeli military conducted UAV strikes in Gaza City, continuing hostilities without any foreign peacekeeping or military personnel entering Gaza. This reinforced the market's view that foreign intervention on the ground had not occurred.
UN condemns Hamas obstruction of humanitarian aid in Gaza
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator publicly condemned Hamas for obstructing humanitarian operations in Gaza, highlighting ongoing security and political challenges. This underscored the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention.
UN Deputy Special Coordinator condemns obstruction of humanitarian operations in Gaza
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator condemned armed personnel affiliated with Gaza's de facto authorities for obstructing humanitarian aid delivery, emphasizing the lack of foreign operational forces entering Gaza for security or peacekeeping roles, thus not meeting market criteria.
US and Israel conduct strikes amid escalating regional conflict, no foreign ground troops in Gaza
US and Israeli military actions intensified in the region, but no reports confirmed foreign troops entering Gaza for operational roles. This maintained market skepticism about foreign intervention on the ground.
Hamas announces resignation of Gaza Emergency Committee amid ceasefire conditions
December 31 dips to 48%2%
Hamas declared the resignation of its Gaza Emergency Committee, a step toward transferring authority to a technocratic body under international oversight. This political development was seen as insufficient to trigger foreign military deployment, influencing market sentiment downward.
Gaza peacekeeping force delayed as international support falters
December 31 drops to 42%10%
Reports emerged that regional instability and logistical setbacks delayed the planned international peacekeeping force deployment to Gaza, with key contributors suspending talks and troop arrivals postponed. This dampened near-term expectations for foreign personnel entering Gaza, impacting market prices downward.
Gaza peacekeeping force delayed amid regional instability and logistical setbacks
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
Reports indicated that the planned international peacekeeping force deployment to Gaza was significantly delayed due to regional instability and logistical challenges. Indonesia suspended talks on joining the mission, and the expected Moroccan detachment was postponed, dampening market optimism and causing price declines.
UN humanitarian report highlights ongoing aid restrictions and casualties in Gaza
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported continued Israeli-imposed access restrictions and casualties in Gaza, with no mention of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This reinforced the market's view that foreign intervention had not occurred.
US-led International Stabilization Force struggles to deploy initial troops to Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Despite plans for a 20,000-strong peacekeeping force, only a small contingent of 10 to 20 Moroccan troops was expected to deploy months later, training near Gaza's border without entering the territory. Delays and political hurdles dampened market optimism about foreign intervention occurring soon.
Trump's peace plan struggles as only 10-20 peacekeepers deployed near Gaza border
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Reports revealed that the International Stabilization Force envisioned by Trump is struggling to deploy more than a small group of 10 to 20 troops who are training near the Israeli border and have not entered Gaza, dampening market expectations for intervention.
International peacekeeping force for Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Reports revealed that the planned 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This delay reduced expectations of imminent foreign intervention on the ground.
US struggling to deploy 20 foreign Gaza peacekeepers after pledging 20,000
December 31 drops to 42%8%
The US-led Board of Peace faced significant delays and scaling back in deploying the promised international peacekeeping force to Gaza, with only a small number of troops expected months later and no entry into Gaza yet, dampening market optimism.
US struggles to secure commitments for Gaza peacekeeping force amid Iran war
December 31 drops to 42%8%
The US-led Board of Peace faced difficulties securing troop commitments for the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, with Indonesia withdrawing and Morocco's deployment delayed, indicating stalled foreign intervention on the ground in Gaza.
Moroccan troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Moroccan soldiers arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force for Gaza but were stationed in Israel near the border and had not entered Gaza. This indicated progress in assembling the force but no foreign boots on the ground in Gaza yet, impacting market sentiment negatively.
International Gaza peacekeeping force delayed amid regional instability and logistical setbacks
December 31 drops to 41%11%
The Jewish Chronicle reported that the planned multinational peacekeeping force faced significant delays, with Indonesia suspending talks and Moroccan troops postponed. The force was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, dampening expectations for near-term foreign intervention in Gaza.
Israeli airstrikes kill nine Palestinians in Gaza including aid driver
December 31 drops to 42%6%
Israeli military actions continued in Gaza, resulting in civilian casualties including a driver delivering food aid. Despite the humanitarian crisis, no foreign military or police forces from outside Israel or Palestinian entities were reported to have entered Gaza for operational roles, maintaining market skepticism.
US President Donald Trump arrives amid stalled Gaza reconstruction efforts
December 31 dips to 48%2%
On July 9, 2026, US President Donald Trump arrived in the US amid reports that the US-controlled Board of Peace's efforts to advance Gaza reconstruction and security deployments were stalled. This indicated delays in any foreign operational deployment in Gaza, influencing market price declines.
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in Gaza despite ceasefire
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Continued Israeli airstrikes killed civilians in Gaza, highlighting ongoing conflict without foreign ground forces entering Gaza. This reinforced market sentiment against foreign operational deployments within the analysis window.
Hamas dissolves administrative body in Gaza Strip, transferring authority to technocratic committee
Hamas dissolved its civilian governing body in Gaza, transferring responsibilities to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a technocratic body under international oversight. This political shift was seen as a step toward governance reform but did not involve foreign military presence, maintaining status quo on foreign intervention prospects.
Israeli strikes kill eight Palestinians in Gaza amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 drops to 42%6%
On July 8, Israeli shelling killed eight Palestinians in Gaza, underscoring the fragile ceasefire and ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
Belgian Foreign Minister moves toward recognizing Palestinian statehood
Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot announced steps toward recognizing Palestinian statehood, signaling increased international diplomatic engagement but not involving foreign military deployment in Gaza. This diplomatic development contributed to market uncertainty but did not indicate foreign intervention on the ground.
Hamas announces resignation of Gaza civil administration under peace plan
December 31 drops to 42%8%
On July 6, Hamas announced the resignation of its civil administration, signaling a shift in Gaza's governance but not involving foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This political development influenced market perceptions by reducing the likelihood of imminent foreign intervention.
Indian opposition criticizes government silence on Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 42%8%
India's Congress party publicly criticized Prime Minister Modi's silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, reflecting international political pressure but no foreign military intervention. This contributed to market doubts about imminent foreign intervention.
Indian opposition criticizes Modi government’s silence on Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Indian Congress leaders publicly criticized Prime Minister Modi for his silence on Israel’s actions in Gaza, reflecting international political discourse but no indication of foreign military intervention in Gaza. This political statement did not affect the likelihood of foreign forces entering Gaza.
Congress criticizes Modi's silence on Israel's actions in Gaza
December 31 drops to 42%8%
Indian opposition leaders publicly criticized Prime Minister Modi for his silence on Israel's military actions in Gaza, reflecting international political tensions but no indication of foreign military personnel entering Gaza. This contributed to market uncertainty and a price decline.
India criticized for silence on Gaza conflict amid foreign policy scrutiny
Indian opposition criticized Prime Minister Modi for silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, reflecting international diplomatic tensions but no direct foreign military intervention in Gaza, thus not affecting the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza.
Hamas resigns Gaza civil administration under peace plan
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Hamas announced resignation of its civil administration under the Gaza peace plan, signaling political instability but no foreign operational deployment in Gaza. This contributed to market doubts about foreign intervention prospects.
Israeli attacks on Gaza kill at least 6 amid ongoing ceasefire violations
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Israeli airstrikes continued to kill and wound Palestinians in Gaza despite a ceasefire, underscoring ongoing conflict without foreign ground intervention. This maintained market skepticism about foreign operational deployments in Gaza.
Israeli strike kills Palestinian in Gaza amid ongoing demolitions
December 31 drops to 41%11%
On July 5, Israeli strikes killed Palestinians in Gaza while demolitions continued, highlighting persistent conflict and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This sustained the market's downward trend in foreign intervention probability.
Egyptian humanitarian aid convoy enters Gaza via Rafah crossing
The 227th Egyptian aid convoy entered Gaza through the Rafah crossing delivering humanitarian supplies. This event confirmed ongoing aid efforts but did not involve foreign military or security personnel entering Gaza, thus not qualifying as foreign intervention under the market criteria.
Israeli army detains settler activists near Syria border amid regional tensions
December 31 drops to 41%9%
The Israeli army detained settler activists attempting to breach the Syria border, highlighting regional security tensions but no foreign operational deployment in Gaza. This event maintained market uncertainty and contributed to price volatility.
UN Security Council endorses International Stabilization Force for Gaza
The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2803 in November 2025, authorizing a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza to stabilize the region and support disarmament. This set the legal framework for the ISF, raising initial market optimism about foreign intervention.
Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt reopens for limited pedestrian movement
Israel reopened the Rafah border crossing with Egypt for limited pedestrian movement under strict security coordination, allowing some movement but not constituting foreign military intervention. This humanitarian development had limited impact on the market's foreign intervention outlook.
Hamas commander killed in Israeli strike amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
An Israeli strike killed a Hamas commander in Gaza on July 2, continuing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts. This event indicated ongoing conflict without foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Morocco signs agreement to join International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Morocco officially signed a legal framework to participate in the ISF, signaling a major Arab military power's commitment to the multinational peacekeeping effort. However, the deployment was planned to begin with training near Gaza's border, not immediate entry into Gaza itself, limiting immediate impact on the market.
Board of Peace officials announce plans for pilot humanitarian zone in southern Gaza
Officials revealed plans to establish a pilot humanitarian zone in the Rafah area of Gaza, to be secured by an International Stabilization Force, but deployment remains pending and contingent on Israeli and Palestinian cooperation, impacting market optimism.
Israeli court extends detention of Gaza-bound flotilla activists
An Israeli court extended detention of two activists from a Gaza-bound flotilla intercepted in international waters. The flotilla aimed to deliver humanitarian aid but was stopped before entering Gaza, indicating no foreign personnel officially entered Gaza territory for operational roles, thus not qualifying as foreign intervention.
UN reports Israeli forces expand control in Gaza, displacing families
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Beit Lahia, Gaza, expanding control zones and causing civilian displacement, but no foreign forces entered Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced market skepticism about foreign intervention, contributing to price decline.
US struggles to deploy initial Moroccan troops for Gaza peacekeeping mission
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The Wall Street Journal reported that after pledging 20,000 peacekeepers, the US was struggling to deploy even a small delegation of 10 to 20 Moroccan troops, who were expected to train in Israel before any operations in Gaza. This highlighted early delays and challenges in the peacekeeping force deployment, impacting market optimism.
Morocco troops expected to train near Gaza border, deployment delayed
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Reports indicated Moroccan peacekeepers, initially slated for June deployment, were now expected to train near Gaza's border inside Israel before any operational deployment, signaling delays in foreign intervention on Gaza soil and contributing to market uncertainty.
Moroccan planning officers join Israel Security Forces planning for Gaza stabilization
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Reports indicated that a small number of Moroccan planning officers arrived in Israel to join ISF planning efforts, marking a tentative step toward deployment, but the overall force deployment remained stalled, tempering expectations for immediate foreign intervention on Gaza ground.
US officials reveal plans for international stabilization force deployment to Gaza in early 2026
US officials announced that a multinational stabilization force could be deployed to Gaza as part of the second phase of the Trump administration's peace plan, aiming to secure the enclave and support demilitarization efforts. This announcement initially raised market optimism about foreign intervention.
UN reports Israeli military advances and humanitarian challenges in Gaza
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, setting tents ablaze and expanding control areas, while humanitarian operations faced severe restrictions. This reinforced the market's view that no foreign operational forces had entered Gaza, maintaining skepticism about foreign intervention.
Israel Defense Minister announces indefinite troop presence in Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Israel's Defense Minister stated that Israeli forces would remain in Gaza indefinitely, reinforcing Israeli military control over much of the territory and signaling no imminent foreign peacekeeping deployment. This announcement contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price increase before subsequent declines.
US plans international stabilization force for Gaza in early 2026
US officials revealed plans for a UN-mandated multinational stabilization force to deploy in Gaza as part of the second phase of the Trump administration's peace plan, aiming to secure the enclave without combat missions against Hamas. This announcement raised initial market expectations for foreign intervention.
UN warns of expanding Israeli control areas in Gaza increasing civilian risks
December 31 rises to 52%2%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, expanding control zones and causing civilian displacement, but no foreign military or peacekeeping forces entered Gaza. This maintained the market's view that foreign intervention as defined had not occurred.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms troops will remain in Gaza security zones indefinitely
December 31 drops to 45%5%
On July 1, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would maintain their presence in Gaza security zones indefinitely, signaling no withdrawal or foreign intervention by other states or international bodies. This reinforced market expectations against foreign operational deployments in Gaza.
UN Security Council prepares for Middle East debate amid ongoing Gaza conflict
The UN Security Council scheduled its quarterly open debate on the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, with briefings expected from UN officials. This highlighted ongoing international focus on Gaza but no indication of foreign military deployment was made, maintaining market uncertainty.
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