Short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models point to a Beijing high of 31–33°C on August 21, aligning with late-summer climatological normals near 30–31°C under moderate humidity and light southerly flow. Variable cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms—common this time of year—limit peak solar insolation and create the narrow spread among 32–34°C outcomes in the market. Ensemble guidance shows minor differences in convective timing that can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C, while recent observational trends confirm no strong heatwave signals and reinforce the tight clustering around these central values.