Recent short-range model guidance for Chongqing on August 21 points to daytime maxima clustered around 32–35 °C, supporting the market’s tight distribution with 33 °C as the plurality outcome. Persistent subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan Basin, combined with high boundary-layer humidity and light steering flow, favors strong daytime heating while limiting ventilation. Afternoon convection and possible thundershowers, driven by diurnal instability and orographic lift from surrounding terrain, introduce the main uncertainty: earlier or heavier rainfall would cap temperatures near 32–33 °C by reducing insolation, whereas delayed or scattered showers could allow brief spikes toward 35 °C. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds over the next 48 hours as mesoscale model runs incorporate updated moisture and wind profiles.