Recent short-term forecasts from AEMET and international models show Madrid cooling after mid-week highs of 35–38°C, with an expected maximum of 30–31°C on August 21 under mostly clear skies and moderate winds. This places the 31°C outcome at the center of trader consensus (46.5% implied probability), followed by 32°C and 30°C, as ensemble guidance indicates limited variability around these values. Typical August climatology for central Spain supports highs near 31–32°C, and the absence of persistent heat advection or strong subsidence reinforces the tight clustering of probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak before market resolution.