**Three Republican Senate incumbents have failed to secure their party's nomination in the 2026 cycle, anchoring trader consensus at 99% for that exact total.** Bill Cassidy lost Louisiana's primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger, John Cornyn fell to Ken Paxton in the Texas runoff, and Tommy Tuberville did not qualify for the Alabama ballot. These outcomes reflect targeted intra-party pressure from aligned challengers and limited broader competition. With the primary calendar largely complete and remaining GOP incumbents such as Pete Ricketts, Dan Sullivan, and Tom Cotton advancing with minimal opposition, additional defeats appear improbable. Late developments like unexpected turnout shifts or new filings in unresolved contests could theoretically alter the count, though current results and historical patterns of low Senate primary turnover support the dominant pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3 99.0%
4 <1%
>4 <1%
$76,322 Объем
$76,322 Объем
3
99%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
3 99.0%
4 <1%
>4 <1%
$76,322 Объем
$76,322 Объем
3
$17,341 Объем
99%
4
$6,571 Объем
<1%
>4
$4,094 Объем
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Three Republican Senate incumbents have failed to secure their party's nomination in the 2026 cycle, anchoring trader consensus at 99% for that exact total.** Bill Cassidy lost Louisiana's primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger, John Cornyn fell to Ken Paxton in the Texas runoff, and Tommy Tuberville did not qualify for the Alabama ballot. These outcomes reflect targeted intra-party pressure from aligned challengers and limited broader competition. With the primary calendar largely complete and remaining GOP incumbents such as Pete Ricketts, Dan Sullivan, and Tom Cotton advancing with minimal opposition, additional defeats appear improbable. Late developments like unexpected turnout shifts or new filings in unresolved contests could theoretically alter the count, though current results and historical patterns of low Senate primary turnover support the dominant pricing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Объем
$76,322Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Three Republican Senate incumbents have failed to secure their party's nomination in the 2026 cycle, anchoring trader consensus at 99% for that exact total.** Bill Cassidy lost Louisiana's primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger, John Cornyn fell to Ken Paxton in the Texas runoff, and Tommy Tuberville did not qualify for the Alabama ballot. These outcomes reflect targeted intra-party pressure from aligned challengers and limited broader competition. With the primary calendar largely complete and remaining GOP incumbents such as Pete Ricketts, Dan Sullivan, and Tom Cotton advancing with minimal opposition, additional defeats appear improbable. Late developments like unexpected turnout shifts or new filings in unresolved contests could theoretically alter the count, though current results and historical patterns of low Senate primary turnover support the dominant pricing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Объем
$76,322Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...**Three Republican Senate incumbents have failed to secure their party's nomination in the 2026 cycle, anchoring trader consensus at 99% for that exact total.** Bill Cassidy lost Louisiana's primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger, John Cornyn fell to Ken Paxton in the Texas runoff, and Tommy Tuberville did not qualify for the Alabama ballot. These outcomes reflect targeted intra-party pressure from aligned challengers and limited broader competition. With the primary calendar largely complete and remaining GOP incumbents such as Pete Ricketts, Dan Sullivan, and Tom Cotton advancing with minimal opposition, additional defeats appear improbable. Late developments like unexpected turnout shifts or new filings in unresolved contests could theoretically alter the count, though current results and historical patterns of low Senate primary turnover support the dominant pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Выиграют ли все действующие сенаторы-демократы свои праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
99%
Да
Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
95%
Да
Будет ли у Республиканской партии ровно 22 или 23 губернаторских поста после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
31%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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