Elevated preliminary tornado reports exceeding 350 from late-April supercell outbreaks across the Plains and Midwest have fueled trader bets on 350+ outcomes at 41%, rivaling the <140 bin amid uncertainty in National Weather Service damage surveys that often downgrade 20-30% of EF0 reports. Historical April averages hover around 175 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA data, but 2024's persistent strong wind shear and Gulf-sourced instability—boosted by ENSO-neutral patterns—have driven above-normal activity, with 140+ tornadoes from the April 26-28 event alone. Final Storm Prediction Center tallies, expected post-surveys, will hinge on radar validations versus non-tornadic circulations, keeping mid-range bins like 170-229 viable at 40.5% amid model divergence on lingering vorticity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHow many Tornadoes in the US in April?
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
<140 42%
350+ 41%
140–169 41%
170–199 41%
<140
42%
140–169
41%
170–199
41%
200–229
41%
230–259
41%
260–289
34%
290–319
34%
320–350
41%
350+
41%
<140 42%
350+ 41%
140–169 41%
170–199 41%
<140
42%
140–169
41%
170–199
41%
200–229
41%
230–259
41%
260–289
34%
290–319
34%
320–350
41%
350+
41%
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated preliminary tornado reports exceeding 350 from late-April supercell outbreaks across the Plains and Midwest have fueled trader bets on 350+ outcomes at 41%, rivaling the <140 bin amid uncertainty in National Weather Service damage surveys that often downgrade 20-30% of EF0 reports. Historical April averages hover around 175 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA data, but 2024's persistent strong wind shear and Gulf-sourced instability—boosted by ENSO-neutral patterns—have driven above-normal activity, with 140+ tornadoes from the April 26-28 event alone. Final Storm Prediction Center tallies, expected post-surveys, will hinge on radar validations versus non-tornadic circulations, keeping mid-range bins like 170-229 viable at 40.5% amid model divergence on lingering vorticity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы