**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around a 7–11°C minimum because official forecasts and ensemble models show the overnight low for Buenos Aires on 26 August 2026 hovering near 9–10°C, with modest spread from differing treatments of cloud cover, wind, and urban effects.** Northeast winds of 10–20 km/h are limiting radiative cooling by advecting slightly milder maritime air, while variable-to-overcast skies reduce the clear-sky temperature drop that would otherwise push readings lower. Dew points near 7–8°C indicate moderate humidity that further moderates the minimum. Hourly guidance from sources such as YR and local services shows early-morning values stabilizing around 9–10°C after midnight, with only isolated runs dipping to 7–8°C under clearer pockets. The even distribution across 7–11°C therefore reflects genuine model uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than any single outlier scenario. Higher outcomes (13°C+) receive lower weight because they would require stronger warm advection or delayed cooling inconsistent with current pressure and wind fields, while sub-6°C readings remain improbable given the mild airmass and lack of strong radiational cooling signals. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance through the morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.