Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF points to an overnight minimum near 18–19°C in Madrid on August 22 under mostly clear skies and light southwesterly winds, following daytime highs of 32–33°C. Radiative cooling will dominate after sunset with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions typical of late-summer high pressure, though subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and exact wind speeds create the tight clustering around 17–19°C. Official forecasts currently favor 18°C as the most probable outcome, consistent with climatological August lows near 16–21°C, while any late-model shift in steering flow or residual humidity could nudge the reading one degree lower or higher before resolution.