Recent forecast guidance for Madrid indicates minimum temperatures on August 25 will likely fall in the 16–18°C range, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover overnight, and surface radiative cooling under partly clear skies. Numerical models show modest spread in the exact low, with GFS and ECMWF runs sensitive to boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds that limit or enhance nocturnal temperature drops. Historical climatology places the typical August 25 minimum near 18–19°C, so the near-even market odds between 25°C-or-higher and 15°C-or-below reflect uncertainty in how much additional cooling will occur relative to recent warmer nights. Updated model runs and AEMET guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range before resolution.