**Forecast models and official guidance from AEMET point to a minimum near 11–12°C overnight into September 10, driven by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under dry conditions.** This setup favors the market's leading outcome of 11°C or below (55.5% implied probability), consistent with recent model runs showing temperatures dropping to that range by dawn before rebounding under mostly sunny daytime conditions. Historical September averages for Madrid hover around 16°C for lows, so the current cooler air mass represents a notable but not extreme deviation. The secondary cluster around 12–15°C (combined ~45%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing and local effects, while the 21°C-or-higher outcome (30%) would require an unexpected warm-air advection that current guidance does not support. Traders are pricing in the latest AEMET forecast of an 11°C minimum and 27°C maximum for the day, with no significant precipitation or cloud cover expected to moderate overnight lows. Updated model runs or AEMET briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Мадриде 10 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Мадриде 10 сентября?
12°C 23%
13°C 11%
17°C 10%
14°C 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 сент. 2026 г.
11°C или ниже
59%
12°C
23%
13°C
11%
14°C
9%
15°C
8%
16°C
4%
17°C
10%
18°C
7%
19°C
7%
20°C
9%
21°C или выше
-
12°C 23%
13°C 11%
17°C 10%
14°C 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 сент. 2026 г.
11°C или ниже
$21 Объем
59%
12°C
$0 Объем
23%
13°C
$0 Объем
11%
14°C
$0 Объем
9%
15°C
$0 Объем
8%
16°C
$25 Объем
4%
17°C
$6 Объем
10%
18°C
$25 Объем
7%
19°C
$25 Объем
7%
20°C
$6 Объем
9%
21°C или выше
$35 Объем
-
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from AEMET point to a minimum near 11–12°C overnight into September 10, driven by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under dry conditions.**
This setup favors the market's leading outcome of 11°C or below (55.5% implied probability), consistent with recent model runs showing temperatures dropping to that range by dawn before rebounding under mostly sunny daytime conditions. Historical September averages for Madrid hover around 16°C for lows, so the current cooler air mass represents a notable but not extreme deviation.
The secondary cluster around 12–15°C (combined ~45%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing and local effects, while the 21°C-or-higher outcome (30%) would require an unexpected warm-air advection that current guidance does not support. Traders are pricing in the latest AEMET forecast of an 11°C minimum and 27°C maximum for the day, with no significant precipitation or cloud cover expected to moderate overnight lows. Updated model runs or AEMET briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$143Дата окончания
10 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from AEMET point to a minimum near 11–12°C overnight into September 10, driven by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under dry conditions.**
This setup favors the market's leading outcome of 11°C or below (55.5% implied probability), consistent with recent model runs showing temperatures dropping to that range by dawn before rebounding under mostly sunny daytime conditions. Historical September averages for Madrid hover around 16°C for lows, so the current cooler air mass represents a notable but not extreme deviation.
The secondary cluster around 12–15°C (combined ~45%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing and local effects, while the 21°C-or-higher outcome (30%) would require an unexpected warm-air advection that current guidance does not support. Traders are pricing in the latest AEMET forecast of an 11°C minimum and 27°C maximum for the day, with no significant precipitation or cloud cover expected to moderate overnight lows. Updated model runs or AEMET briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$143Дата окончания
10 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from AEMET point to a minimum near 11–12°C overnight into September 10, driven by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under dry conditions.** This setup favors the market's leading outcome of 11°C or below (55.5% implied probability), consistent with recent model runs showing temperatures dropping to that range by dawn before rebounding under mostly sunny daytime conditions. Historical September averages for Madrid hover around 16°C for lows, so the current cooler air mass represents a notable but not extreme deviation. The secondary cluster around 12–15°C (combined ~45%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing and local effects, while the 21°C-or-higher outcome (30%) would require an unexpected warm-air advection that current guidance does not support. Traders are pricing in the latest AEMET forecast of an 11°C minimum and 27°C maximum for the day, with no significant precipitation or cloud cover expected to moderate overnight lows. Updated model runs or AEMET briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы