Current numerical weather prediction models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a Madrid minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 11, shaped by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiative cooling overnight that allows surface temperatures to drop below the seasonal average low of 16.2°C. This setup creates tight uncertainty around exact thresholds, with traders balancing the 50.5% implied probability on 11°C or below against near-even odds on warmer outcomes due to potential model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind mixing. Historical analogs from similar high-pressure patterns show minima varying by 2–3°C based on dew-point depressions and urban heat effects, with the next AEMET or ECMWF update likely refining the resolution criteria for this short-range market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Мадриде 11 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Мадриде 11 сентября?
21°C или выше 90%
13°C 40%
16°C 39%
17°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
11 сент. 2026 г.
11°C или ниже
37%
12°C
26%
13°C
40%
14°C
38%
15°C
37%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
37%
19°C
38%
20°C
38%
21°C или выше
90%
21°C или выше 90%
13°C 40%
16°C 39%
17°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
11 сент. 2026 г.
11°C или ниже
$5 Объем
37%
12°C
$0 Объем
26%
13°C
$0 Объем
40%
14°C
$0 Объем
38%
15°C
$0 Объем
37%
16°C
$0 Объем
39%
17°C
$0 Объем
39%
18°C
$0 Объем
37%
19°C
$0 Объем
38%
20°C
$0 Объем
38%
21°C или выше
$0 Объем
90%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a Madrid minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 11, shaped by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiative cooling overnight that allows surface temperatures to drop below the seasonal average low of 16.2°C. This setup creates tight uncertainty around exact thresholds, with traders balancing the 50.5% implied probability on 11°C or below against near-even odds on warmer outcomes due to potential model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind mixing. Historical analogs from similar high-pressure patterns show minima varying by 2–3°C based on dew-point depressions and urban heat effects, with the next AEMET or ECMWF update likely refining the resolution criteria for this short-range market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$5Дата окончания
11 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a Madrid minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 11, shaped by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiative cooling overnight that allows surface temperatures to drop below the seasonal average low of 16.2°C. This setup creates tight uncertainty around exact thresholds, with traders balancing the 50.5% implied probability on 11°C or below against near-even odds on warmer outcomes due to potential model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind mixing. Historical analogs from similar high-pressure patterns show minima varying by 2–3°C based on dew-point depressions and urban heat effects, with the next AEMET or ECMWF update likely refining the resolution criteria for this short-range market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$5Дата окончания
11 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a Madrid minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 11, shaped by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiative cooling overnight that allows surface temperatures to drop below the seasonal average low of 16.2°C. This setup creates tight uncertainty around exact thresholds, with traders balancing the 50.5% implied probability on 11°C or below against near-even odds on warmer outcomes due to potential model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind mixing. Historical analogs from similar high-pressure patterns show minima varying by 2–3°C based on dew-point depressions and urban heat effects, with the next AEMET or ECMWF update likely refining the resolution criteria for this short-range market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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