Forecast models from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and supporting numerical guidance indicate a minimum temperature near 4–5°C overnight into September 9, 2026, under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds that favor radiative cooling. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 5°C (69.5%) and 4°C (32.5%), reflecting trader assessment of clear-air heat loss from the surface after daytime highs of 19–22°C. Seasonal progression into early autumn lowers baseline nighttime temperatures below the 9°C climatological average, while the absence of strong advection or cloud cover limits warming. Historical records show September 9 lows as cold as 3.1°C, yet current observations and short-range ensembles place the most probable outcome squarely in the 4–5°C range, with minimal probability mass below 4°C or above 6°C. Final readings from official stations will resolve the market once the calendar day concludes.