Current ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Korea Meteorological Administration point to a Seoul-Incheon minimum temperature of 21–22°C on August 12, driven by typical late-summer patterns of high daytime heating, elevated humidity near 70–80%, and light winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Closely matched leading outcomes reflect model spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing overnight, which can shift the low by 1°C. Historical August minima average near 22°C, providing a baseline, while any increase in low-level moisture or lingering daytime clouds would favor the lower end. Traders monitor updated short-range model runs and official 24-hour forecasts for resolution thresholds.