Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$57,705 Объем
$57,705 Объем
5 мая 2026 г.
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$57,705 Объем
$57,705 Объем
5 мая 2026 г.
10°C or below
$18,263 Объем
No
11°C
$16,410 Объем
No
12°C
$13,365 Объем
No
13°C
$1,319 Объем
No
14°C
$3,633 Объем
Yes
15°C
$596 Объем
No
16°C
$724 Объем
No
17°C
$1,100 Объем
No
18°C
$941 Объем
No
19°C
$886 Объем
No
20°C or higher
$467 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Объем
$57,705Дата окончания
5 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$57,705Дата окончания
5 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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