Forecast models from Environment Canada, NOAA ensembles, and GFS runs indicate Toronto’s overnight low on August 22 will likely settle in the 16–18 °C range under a warm, moist southerly flow with increasing cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms after sunset. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer historical analogs, keeping the minimum well above the long-term 17.2 °C average low. Recent model consensus has shown only modest shifts in dew-point and wind forecasts, sustaining market-implied probabilities clustered around the mid-teens while the lower tail (≤9 °C) retains weight from residual uncertainty in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will likely tighten resolution criteria for this single-day minimum.