NY-15 remains a structurally Democratic stronghold in the Bronx, where incumbent Ritchie Torres holds a commanding position ahead of the June 23 primary and November general election. The district's partisan voting index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and limited Republican organization contribute to trader consensus reflected in the 94.3% Democratic probability. With the Republican primary already resolved in favor of a lesser-known challenger and no major shifts in local political dynamics reported in recent weeks, the outcome hinges primarily on the Democratic nominee advancing without disruption. Potential challenges include an unforeseen primary upset producing a weaker general-election candidate, late-breaking scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability events given historical margins and current conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-15
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-15
$23,538 Объем
$23,538 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
5%
$23,538 Объем
$23,538 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$11,807 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$11,731 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 remains a structurally Democratic stronghold in the Bronx, where incumbent Ritchie Torres holds a commanding position ahead of the June 23 primary and November general election. The district's partisan voting index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and limited Republican organization contribute to trader consensus reflected in the 94.3% Democratic probability. With the Republican primary already resolved in favor of a lesser-known challenger and no major shifts in local political dynamics reported in recent weeks, the outcome hinges primarily on the Democratic nominee advancing without disruption. Potential challenges include an unforeseen primary upset producing a weaker general-election candidate, late-breaking scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability events given historical margins and current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$23,538Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 remains a structurally Democratic stronghold in the Bronx, where incumbent Ritchie Torres holds a commanding position ahead of the June 23 primary and November general election. The district's partisan voting index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and limited Republican organization contribute to trader consensus reflected in the 94.3% Democratic probability. With the Republican primary already resolved in favor of a lesser-known challenger and no major shifts in local political dynamics reported in recent weeks, the outcome hinges primarily on the Democratic nominee advancing without disruption. Potential challenges include an unforeseen primary upset producing a weaker general-election candidate, late-breaking scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability events given historical margins and current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$23,538Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-15 remains a structurally Democratic stronghold in the Bronx, where incumbent Ritchie Torres holds a commanding position ahead of the June 23 primary and November general election. The district's partisan voting index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and limited Republican organization contribute to trader consensus reflected in the 94.3% Democratic probability. With the Republican primary already resolved in favor of a lesser-known challenger and no major shifts in local political dynamics reported in recent weeks, the outcome hinges primarily on the Democratic nominee advancing without disruption. Potential challenges include an unforeseen primary upset producing a weaker general-election candidate, late-breaking scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability events given historical margins and current conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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