The high implied probability that H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 stems primarily from its repeated passage in the House—most recently by a 218-213 vote in February 2026—followed by consistent failure to clear the Senate. The legislation, which mandates documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold. With Republicans holding 53 seats, it requires cross-party support that has not materialized, as evidenced by Senate debates stalling earlier in the year and a failed revival effort led by Sen. Mike Lee. Additional attempts to incorporate similar provisions through the NDAA or budget reconciliation have not advanced the full measure to enactment. With limited legislative days remaining before the end of the 2026 session and no scheduled votes capable of bypassing procedural barriers, traders view enactment this calendar year as unlikely absent an unforeseen procedural breakthrough or major shift in Senate dynamics.