Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest of Tucker Carlson by May 31 at 94%, driven by the absence of any official DOJ announcements, indictments, or law enforcement actions following his mid-March claims of a potential criminal referral from the CIA over alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act violations tied to contacts with Iranian officials amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed these assertions as unfounded, with no procedural developments like charges or investigation confirmations emerging in the three weeks since. This skepticism aligns with historical patterns where high-profile FARA probes rarely lead to swift arrests without public filings, leaving little basis for trader expectations of action before the deadline despite lingering partisan speculation on social media.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мая 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest of Tucker Carlson by May 31 at 94%, driven by the absence of any official DOJ announcements, indictments, or law enforcement actions following his mid-March claims of a potential criminal referral from the CIA over alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act violations tied to contacts with Iranian officials amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed these assertions as unfounded, with no procedural developments like charges or investigation confirmations emerging in the three weeks since. This skepticism aligns with historical patterns where high-profile FARA probes rarely lead to swift arrests without public filings, leaving little basis for trader expectations of action before the deadline despite lingering partisan speculation on social media.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
Объем
$1,124Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest of Tucker Carlson by May 31 at 94%, driven by the absence of any official DOJ announcements, indictments, or law enforcement actions following his mid-March claims of a potential criminal referral from the CIA over alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act violations tied to contacts with Iranian officials amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed these assertions as unfounded, with no procedural developments like charges or investigation confirmations emerging in the three weeks since. This skepticism aligns with historical patterns where high-profile FARA probes rarely lead to swift arrests without public filings, leaving little basis for trader expectations of action before the deadline despite lingering partisan speculation on social media.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,124Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest of Tucker Carlson by May 31 at 94%, driven by the absence of any official DOJ announcements, indictments, or law enforcement actions following his mid-March claims of a potential criminal referral from the CIA over alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act violations tied to contacts with Iranian officials amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed these assertions as unfounded, with no procedural developments like charges or investigation confirmations emerging in the three weeks since. This skepticism aligns with historical patterns where high-profile FARA probes rarely lead to swift arrests without public filings, leaving little basis for trader expectations of action before the deadline despite lingering partisan speculation on social media.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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