A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced April 7, 2026, has halted direct military actions following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, missile sites, and leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's Supreme National Security Council accepted the conditional pause—tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz—while presenting a 10-point peace plan that President Trump called a "workable basis" for talks, though gaps persist on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, proxy militias, and regional influence. Negotiations are set to begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, amid risks of violations like reported mines and Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Trader consensus reflects deep mistrust from the collapsed JCPOA and recent war, viewing permanent peace as unlikely without major concessions before the ceasefire's May deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПостоянное мирное соглашение между США и Ираном от...?
Постоянное мирное соглашение между США и Ираном от...?
НОВОЕ
$146,604 Объем
22 апр. 2026 г.
22 апреля
11%
30 апреля
13%
31 мая
31%
$146,604 Объем
22 апреля
$118,561 Объем
11%
30 апреля
$15,153 Объем
13%
31 мая
$12,913 Объем
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced April 7, 2026, has halted direct military actions following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, missile sites, and leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's Supreme National Security Council accepted the conditional pause—tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz—while presenting a 10-point peace plan that President Trump called a "workable basis" for talks, though gaps persist on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, proxy militias, and regional influence. Negotiations are set to begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, amid risks of violations like reported mines and Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Trader consensus reflects deep mistrust from the collapsed JCPOA and recent war, viewing permanent peace as unlikely without major concessions before the ceasefire's May deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Объем
$146,604Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced April 7, 2026, has halted direct military actions following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, missile sites, and leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's Supreme National Security Council accepted the conditional pause—tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz—while presenting a 10-point peace plan that President Trump called a "workable basis" for talks, though gaps persist on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, proxy militias, and regional influence. Negotiations are set to begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, amid risks of violations like reported mines and Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Trader consensus reflects deep mistrust from the collapsed JCPOA and recent war, viewing permanent peace as unlikely without major concessions before the ceasefire's May deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$146,604Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced April 7, 2026, has halted direct military actions following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, missile sites, and leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's Supreme National Security Council accepted the conditional pause—tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz—while presenting a 10-point peace plan that President Trump called a "workable basis" for talks, though gaps persist on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, proxy militias, and regional influence. Negotiations are set to begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, amid risks of violations like reported mines and Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Trader consensus reflects deep mistrust from the collapsed JCPOA and recent war, viewing permanent peace as unlikely without major concessions before the ceasefire's May deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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