Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026, including strikes and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have not escalated to a ground invasion, with recent diplomatic signals instead favoring de-escalation. President Trump’s August 2026 statements canceling planned attacks contingent on a rapid nuclear deal and Hormuz reopening align with multi-round talks that produced a June memorandum and technical sessions through late June. These developments, alongside Iranian denials of requesting pauses yet remaining open to IAEA cooperation, reflect trader consensus that sustained negotiations and allied pressure for dialogue reduce the near-term likelihood of full-scale invasion before 2027. Scheduled diplomatic timelines and historical patterns of U.S. restraint absent broader coalition support further anchor the elevated “No” probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Иран до 2027 года?
Да
$54,760,176 Объем
$54,760,176 Объем
Да
$54,760,176 Объем
$54,760,176 Объем
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026, including strikes and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have not escalated to a ground invasion, with recent diplomatic signals instead favoring de-escalation. President Trump’s August 2026 statements canceling planned attacks contingent on a rapid nuclear deal and Hormuz reopening align with multi-round talks that produced a June memorandum and technical sessions through late June. These developments, alongside Iranian denials of requesting pauses yet remaining open to IAEA cooperation, reflect trader consensus that sustained negotiations and allied pressure for dialogue reduce the near-term likelihood of full-scale invasion before 2027. Scheduled diplomatic timelines and historical patterns of U.S. restraint absent broader coalition support further anchor the elevated “No” probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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