Recent diplomatic initiatives and limited U.S. military posture explain the 79.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that began in February 2026 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a June memorandum of understanding sought to formalize an end to major hostilities within 60 days, though July attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed but contained U.S. strikes. President Trump stated the exchanges would not produce long-term military action, while mediators continue seeking off-ramps amid concerns over escalation costs, regional instability, and global energy impacts. With only months remaining until the resolution date and no confirmed ground operation plans, the implied probability aligns with the emphasis on diplomacy over territorial seizure.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Иран до 2027 года?
Да
$54,749,661 Объем
$54,749,661 Объем
Да
$54,749,661 Объем
$54,749,661 Объем
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic initiatives and limited U.S. military posture explain the 79.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that began in February 2026 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a June memorandum of understanding sought to formalize an end to major hostilities within 60 days, though July attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed but contained U.S. strikes. President Trump stated the exchanges would not produce long-term military action, while mediators continue seeking off-ramps amid concerns over escalation costs, regional instability, and global energy impacts. With only months remaining until the resolution date and no confirmed ground operation plans, the implied probability aligns with the emphasis on diplomacy over territorial seizure.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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