**Trump's February 2026 comments urging Republicans to "nationalize" voting, alongside reports of draft executive orders targeting mail ballots, voter registration, and proof-of-citizenship rules, prompted legal challenges that continue to shape trader views.** The Constitution assigns primary election administration to states, with Congress holding limited oversight authority under Article I, Section 4; multiple analyses and ongoing lawsuits from state attorneys general assert that unilateral presidential action exceeds these bounds. Subsequent March 2026 executive orders on citizenship verification and mail voting have faced immediate court contests and implementation resistance, mirroring prior blocked attempts. Traders assign the 87.5% "No" probability because these structural limits, combined with state-level pushback and litigation timelines extending past the 2026 midterms, make comprehensive federal takeover improbable absent new legislation or court rulings that have not materialized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Трамп национализировать выборы?
Будет ли Трамп национализировать выборы?
Да
$16,776 Объем
$16,776 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$16,776 Объем
$16,776 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trump's February 2026 comments urging Republicans to "nationalize" voting, alongside reports of draft executive orders targeting mail ballots, voter registration, and proof-of-citizenship rules, prompted legal challenges that continue to shape trader views.** The Constitution assigns primary election administration to states, with Congress holding limited oversight authority under Article I, Section 4; multiple analyses and ongoing lawsuits from state attorneys general assert that unilateral presidential action exceeds these bounds. Subsequent March 2026 executive orders on citizenship verification and mail voting have faced immediate court contests and implementation resistance, mirroring prior blocked attempts. Traders assign the 87.5% "No" probability because these structural limits, combined with state-level pushback and litigation timelines extending past the 2026 midterms, make comprehensive federal takeover improbable absent new legislation or court rulings that have not materialized.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Объем
$16,776Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trump's February 2026 comments urging Republicans to "nationalize" voting, alongside reports of draft executive orders targeting mail ballots, voter registration, and proof-of-citizenship rules, prompted legal challenges that continue to shape trader views.** The Constitution assigns primary election administration to states, with Congress holding limited oversight authority under Article I, Section 4; multiple analyses and ongoing lawsuits from state attorneys general assert that unilateral presidential action exceeds these bounds. Subsequent March 2026 executive orders on citizenship verification and mail voting have faced immediate court contests and implementation resistance, mirroring prior blocked attempts. Traders assign the 87.5% "No" probability because these structural limits, combined with state-level pushback and litigation timelines extending past the 2026 midterms, make comprehensive federal takeover improbable absent new legislation or court rulings that have not materialized.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$16,776Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trump's February 2026 comments urging Republicans to "nationalize" voting, alongside reports of draft executive orders targeting mail ballots, voter registration, and proof-of-citizenship rules, prompted legal challenges that continue to shape trader views.** The Constitution assigns primary election administration to states, with Congress holding limited oversight authority under Article I, Section 4; multiple analyses and ongoing lawsuits from state attorneys general assert that unilateral presidential action exceeds these bounds. Subsequent March 2026 executive orders on citizenship verification and mail voting have faced immediate court contests and implementation resistance, mirroring prior blocked attempts. Traders assign the 87.5% "No" probability because these structural limits, combined with state-level pushback and litigation timelines extending past the 2026 midterms, make comprehensive federal takeover improbable absent new legislation or court rulings that have not materialized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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